If odds are to your liking, don't put the house on North Harbour lifting the Ranfurly Shield in Christchurch tomorrow.
After all, it will be the union's 11th crack at the log, and it has still to spend any time sitting in the club trophy cabinet.
What's more, North Harbour have yet to win on Jade Stadium. Are you getting the drift here?
Still, there's no time like the present to put those two bugs in the bin.
The last time Harbour challenged for the shield in Christchurch was 2002. Tony Woodcock was at prop, as he is again tomorrow, bringing his return to rugby after his All Black stand-down forward a week.
Luke McAlister was at centre that day. He'll run things tomorrow from first five-eighths. Anthony Tuitavake came off the bench.
Canterbury 65 North Harbour 10 still cuts deep in Harbour minds.
"It's a big game, no doubt," said McAlister. "I've experienced shield rugby once and we got a hiding. It doesn't come around too often so it would be good to make amends."
Harbour have a decent record since then against Canterbury. They lost narrowly at Albany the following year and the last two clashes have been 43-all and 23-all draws.
"We've got a pretty good record against Canterbury - we're goingdown there feeling confident we can challenge the best side in the competition," McAlister said.
Only four Harbour players have started a shield challenge - captain Rua Tipoki, who won it with Bay of Plenty, McAlister, Woodcock and Jonah Lomu, re-emphasising the point that opportunities to challenge don't come round that often in many player's careers.
Harbour coach Allan Pollock has plumped for lively young James Rodley at halfback ahead of the bigger Junior Poluleuligaga, and promising Colts lock Ryan Wilson gets his biggest game.
Adrian Donald starts at tighthead prop ahead of fiery Mike Noble, and Greg Rawlinson returns to ensure that, along with Wilson and Anthony Boric, Harbour should be hugely competitive at the lineout.
Rawlinson is one of 17 All Blacks returning to the Air New Zealand Cup this weekend. He stayed on in South Africa after the final Tri-Nations loss to the Springboks to visit relations in Durban.
Now it's back to business and he's no different from the other returning internationals in his ambitions for the rest of the domestic competition.
"It's important for all the guys who want to make that next tour that we go well in the next few games," he said of the All Blacks' end-of-year trip to Britain and France.
"I've now got a good feeling of the setup and I've learned a lot since I've been there.
"Putting into practice what I've learned is the next key thing. I'm trying to make my mark in the All Black team and I feel I can do more, I've just got to try and show that."
Canterbury have two All Blacks back, fullback Leon MacDonald and second five-eighths Aaron Mauger. Notwithstanding last Sunday's late defeat to Wellington, Canterbury have a reputation of getting home if games get tight.
Harbour's job is to trust themselves, and take any chance that's offering. They have deliberately not overdone training this week.
"We said to our players, 'We either keep the same [regime], add to it, or go into it a little bit underdone'," Pollock said. "That's the way we're doing it. We're going in a little bit hungry and frustrated."
Harbour's challenges
v Auckland 1986 lost 18-6
v Auckland 1988 lost 39-12
v Auckland 1990 lost 18-9
v Auckland 1992 lost 25-16
v Taranaki 1996 lost 13-11
v Waikato 1996 lost 17-14
v Auckland 1996 lost 69-27
v Waikato 1998 lost 39-22
v Waikato 2000 lost 24-11
v Canterbury 2002 lost 65-10
Harbour pray 11 is their lucky number
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.