Harbour have the edge - but not by much

North Harbour have caught Otago at the right time, with four successive defeats going into tomorrow's national championship quarter-final at Albany.

Or, for those with a gloomy disposition, Otago are due a win after a wretched run of losses, including a 28-18 Top Six group loss at the same ground last month. Otago could have won that Air NZ Cup match, Harbour overcoming an ordinary first half to ease clear with a strong last half-hour.

And this Otago team is bolstered by All Black forwards Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver and James Ryan, recovering after a lengthy shoulder injury.

So there's little to be gained by looking back at that contest on September 17.

"They will pay more attention to it than us," Harbour coach Allan Pollock said. "They probably didn't perform as well as they'd hoped to and I'm sure they've identified areas to attack us, just as we have with them."

Harbour have retained the same backline from last weekend's loss to Waikato, resisting the temptation to start Tusi Pisi at first five-eighths and move Luke McAlister out one place, a pairing that worked well in the final quarter in Hamilton. All Black loosehead prop Tony Woodcock returns and promising Ryan Wilson partners Greg Rawlinson at lock.

Otago are unchanged from their 21-14 loss to Wellington a week ago and if the odds are against them tomorrow, there's not much in it.

Win, and Harbour are likely to face a trip to Eden Park for the semifinals next weekend but Pollock knows nothing is guaranteed at this stage.

"Margins are so tight with teams of this calibre in sudden death.

"If you're a couple of percentage points off your game and your opponents are having a good day at the office and get a couple of half-decent calls or bounces of the ball, you're not going to win."

It's important that Harbour win simply from the aspect of momentum. A fortnight ago they won the Ranfurly Shield for the first time in their 21-year history. Last year, they made the semifinals. They need to at least repeat that to show they are making progress.

If they win, they'll do it without Jonah Lomu who, for the second week, misses a place on the bench. It may be that he's been seen for the final time in the national championship.

Keep an eye on the scrum tomorrow. Hayman against Woodcock is the sort of clash front-row aficionados drool over.

If Harbour get enough possession to give their fleet-footed backs opportunities in favourable parts of the ground, they should win. It may be easier said than done.