The 2005 transfer market looks like being one of the busiest ever, with Bay of Plenty's Kevin Senio a contender to be the first defector.
Senio, the highly-rated halfback, has been offered a new contract to stay at the Bay next season, and while the Steamers are confident that he will sign, a desire to get regular Super 12 football may yet see him leave.
Senio has to compete with All Black incumbent Byron Kelleher for a starting place at the Chiefs and was confined to the bench for much of the 2005 campaign.
Senio was in line to go on the All Black end-of-season tour last year until a broken ankle ruled him out. He has been mentioned in dispatches by Graham Henry this season and was called up by the Junior All Blacks.
Blessed with a bullet pass and rugged enough to defend and make headway round the fringes, Senio is a player of considerable ability. But he does need regular Super 12 game time to prove his worth, which is why he may be waiting to see whether Kelleher opts to stay with Waikato before he commits to the Bay.
If Kelleher, who is off contract at the end of this NPC season, stays in the Waikato, Senio's opportunities at the Chiefs will be limited and he might have to look elsewhere to further his career.
And, despite contrary reports, it does appear as if Kelleher will re-sign with Waikato.
Waikato marketing manager Pat Mellsop said: "We are talking with Byron and are hopeful he will sign with us. I think his agent has already been quoted as saying he would be staggered if Byron didn't re-sign with Waikato."
Canterbury, who have lost Justin Marshall, have a reported interest in Senio. But Bay of Plenty manager Craig Morris remains confident Senio will extend his stay with the Steamers.
"We have presented Kevin with a contract and he is not very far away from making a decision. He is a class player and we want to hang on to him," said Morris.
Regardless of Senio and Kelleher's final decisions, there is certain to be a raft of transfers before the end of the NPC.
The movement is being partly driven by the major NPC unions, who are keen to sign up big names ahead of the salary cap. The big five - Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago - are not in favour of the imposition of a cap next year.
In their efforts to fight it, they are trying to sign players now on two-year contracts and then argue it will be almost impossible for them to get their wage bill under the cap.
The New Zealand Rugby Union warned provinces against this last year but is ultimately powerless to prevent it in a free market.
That's why several more players are expected to switch allegiance this season as the big-money offers are likely to dry up once the salary cap is imposed.
One player not on the move is Luke McAlister, despite revelations last week he had been approached by UK Super League club, Wigan.
McAlister is contracted to North Harbour until the end of next season. With Carlos Spencer now at Northampton, McAlister is expected to be given considerable responsibility with the Blues next season, a challenge he very much wants to take on.
- HERALD ON SUNDAY
Free market forces could tempt Senio
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