Five ways for Auckland to beat Canterbury

Auckland-Canterbury Ranfurly Shield matches have had plenty of drama over the years and tonight's contest is likely to be no different.

Below are five things the resurgent Auckland side need to get right to beat Canterbury:

1 Control their setpiece

Nothing will count more than a rock-solid scrum and a reliable lineout. Without those foundations, all the athletic chicanery Auckland want to deliver will be hamstrung.

2 Nobble Carter and McCaw

Despite his class, Carter will be anxious about his impact after two months away with a broken leg. Several clattering tackles would help retain that tension while McCaw cannot be allowed to scavenge free ball or dictate at the breakdown.

3 Retain possession

On what is forecast to be a dodgy evening in the Garden City, Auckland must be much more clinical protecting the ball at the breakdown and with their short passing in traffic.

4 Kick their goals

Brent Ward has made huge advances this season with his reliability and shades Ben Blair in success rate but tonight will be all about who delivers under pressure in difficult conditions.

5 Schmooze the ref

Antagonising Paul Honiss is a big no-no and often costly. Reuben Thorne is a master at "discussing" decisions and Justin Collins must also attend to those duties adroitly to help his side settle into a rhythm.

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Guide to the semifinal permutations:

Auckland are the only team in the top four certain of a home semifinal, irrespective of whether they win the Ranfurly Shield tonight.

If Canterbury retain the shield, they will end the round robin at the top of the table and will host the other semifinal.

Auckland could play any of Canterbury, Otago or North Harbour in the semifinals. If they beat Canterbury, and Otago and North Harbour both win, the old foes would meet for a second consecutive week next Friday night at Eden Park. If they lose to Canterbury, they cannot be overhauled for second by either Otago or North Harbour.

In terms of which semifinal will be on Friday night and which on Saturday night, the only certainty is that North Harbour's match will be on Saturday, irrespective of their opponent or venue as they will be the last of the four to complete their round robin programme, at Invercargill tomorrow.

Chances of a Battle of the Bridge? For that to happen, Auckland must win and North Harbour must lose - or Auckland must lose and Harbour must win, and Otago have to lose to Waikato, thus putting the rivals second and third.

For Harbour to host their semifinal, they need to shut their eyes and cross their fingers today. They need Auckland to win, Otago to lose and then, tomorrow, they must beat Southland.

And finally, if your head has stopped spinning, superstitious teams will want to avoid finishing fourth this weekend. This is because since 2000 only Auckland in 2003 have won the title from fourth spot.