Wynne Gray: NPC's shotgun wedding doomed

Your location will colour your perception of the decision to expand the NPC next season to 14 teams.

In Hawkes Bay where the All Black trial was held last night, there is elation that the Magpies have been restored to the top echelon.

That understandable reaction will be replicated in Manawatu, Tasman and Counties Manukau, while there will be relief from the rugby extremities in Northland and Southland, who have been retained.

But you can't help feeling this is a victory for the tail wagging the dog.

For some time the Rugby Union has barked about the need for a streamlined competition, for a more professional series before they whimpered off in the opposite direction this week.

There will be a feelgood factor in the provinces, there will be all sorts of pap spouted about the greater good of the game and pathways for players to get to the top.

It reeks of a decision weighed down by tradition and history, of hope rather than substance, of concern about legal challenges.

It also reeks of a fear that World Cup officials would look suspiciously at New Zealand's 2011 bid if the country was in a turmoil when they visit this month.

Hearing union chairman Jock Hobbs say he was "cautiously confident" was hardly a ringing endorsement of the new concept.

He claimed the union was not afraid of making hard decisions but it looks like an easy option to appease all parties.

Funding for the competition, the salary cap level and negotiations with the Players' Association are massive issues yet to be addressed.

New Zealand does not have 300 players of professional standards needed for this competition. It struggles to maintain 150 for the Super 12.

With the expanded Tri-Nations series next season, more players needed for rotation in the All Black squad and those players removed from an NPC, where are the numbers of sufficient standard to fill the void? Isn't there the danger of some unholy score blowouts?

And quite what a World cup-style elimination finals series does for players who are not in an expanded All Black squad is curious.

The provinces will claim their youth can now aspire to a career pathway or Super 12 inclusion. But how many of them want to be fulltime professional rugby players and what will they do for the first half of the year when they miss out on Super 12 contracts?

And will those who are forced to shift because of the salary cap move provinces or take up a better offer overseas?

If this sounds all too negative and a big-city viewpoint, then tough. Professional sport should be about quality, about the best playing the best and an expanded NPC series does not fill that criteria.

Competitions which rely on two pools rather than round-robin play is camouflage. It is a weakness of the World Cup and is being replicated in New Zealand next year.

The union is charged with blending provincial wishes, strengthening the game and dealing with the difficulties of professional and amateur partners.

They have come up with a shotgun solution and, as societal statistics show, those forced arrangements often lead to painful disintegration.