David Leggat: NPC first-division contenders at a glance

NORTHLAND

It's been a struggle in recent seasons keeping the Cambridge Blues' feet out of the second division. They've made something of an art form out of promotion-relegation survival, but that fear has gone with the revamp of the NPC.

So, coach Bruce Hodder and his team can go out and enjoy themselves, not having to glance anxiously at the points table each Monday morning.

There's a Fijian presence in the squad again with wing Isoa Neivua and loose forward and former national sevens captain Mesake Davu, alongside experienced players like Jared Going and the returned David Holwell to organise the show.

They beat Waikato and Counties Manukau in the leadup and if they can catch Wellington on the hop tomorrow afternoon in Whangarei it should set them up for an enjoyable, pressure-free campaign.

Player to watch: Holwell. We know what to expect but having an experienced hand on the tiller should provide a steadying influence.

Prospects: Semifinals? No. But a decent chance to avoid the wooden spoon.

WAIKATO

Beaten in the semifinals last year, Waikato have a new coach with a strong reputation in Warren Gatland and the core of the Chiefs team who were among the best of the Super 12 over the final few weeks.

No Sivivatu, Kelleher or Holah early but there are plenty of familiar faces. They will be the better once talismanic captain Jono Gibbes is back from a foot injury. They have a decent draw, their first two away games being against two of the weaker provinces.

Gatland has not returned from a highly successful career in England just for laughs. He has a reputation as a winner. His players will be well aware of that by now. Expect them to figure prominently.

Player to watch: Sosene Anesi, whose blistering pace was a feature of the Chiefs and earned him an All Black callup.

Prospects: Anything less than semifinals will be considered a flop.

BAY OF PLENTY

Captured the public imagination with their march to the semifinals last year before coming a cropper in Christchurch. The losses of Glen Jackson and Rua Tipoki won't help, but there are enough battle-hardened players with Super 12 experience to ensure they'll be tough to topple this season.

Aucklander Murray Williams showed he can compensate for Jackson's loss with his mature display against the Lions and the Bay have a solid front row, strong locks and loose forwards, the nippy Kevin Senio at halfback and reasonable pace out wide.

Coach Vern Cotter is ambitious to carry on where they left off last season. There's a strong chance they will, especially if Wayne Ormond's leadership continues in the same vein.

Player to watch: Young lock Bernie Upton, who made giant strides at the Chiefs this year.

Prospects: Semifinal contenders, especially if they get early momentum.

TARANAKI

Missed the semifinals by a point last year. Only winners Canterbury scored more points than the 'Naki - and no one scored more tries - but they twice shipped over half a ton, which means their games were entertaining one way or the other.

Expect them to be tough scrappers again with a durable front row - in which Gordon Slater plays his 99th first division game in Hamilton tonight - a hard-minded pack with a worthy but limited backline.

They face a key game in round three away to Bay of Plenty. Win that, after having beaten Northland in New Plymouth a week earlier, and they'll be in business.

Player to watch: Paul Tito, whose red head makes him a natural standout in one respect each week. Can he inspire the amber and blacks in a similar vein to his New Zealand Maori mates - and provincial rivals - Gibbes and Ormond?

Prospects: Might make the semifinals. If not, they won't be far away.

WELLINGTON

Beaten finalists last year, they should be among the leading contenders. But they have form for running hot and cold.

Last season they were the most parsimonious defence in the round robin and at their best, they'll be showstoppers - exhilarating backs, lively loose forwards, reliable locks and a promising young prop in Neemia Tialata.

They lost only once before the final last year but something seems to hold them back at the critical times. One title in 13 years tells its own story.

Player to watch: A toss-up between lock Ross Filipo, who grew in stature at the Crusaders - how often have we heard that before? - and tackle-busting Ma'a Nonu, who could be their No 1 gamebreaker.

Prospects: No reason why they won't figure in the last four. At least, all the signs suggest that's where they should end up.

CANTERBURY

This is easy. The defending champions will take some beating, even minus MacDonald, Mauger, Carter, Mehrtens, Marshall, McCaw, Jack, Somerville and Hewett, missing for a variety of reasons.

Why? The culture is ingrained. New players are introduced to the bosom of this family and made part of the grand scheme. Coach Aussie McLean is off to the Hurricanes at the end of this season. Whether sending him off in style is a factor remains to be seen.

But there is still a mountain of talent in the squad, including their latest Fijian flyer, Vilimoni Delasau.

Player to watch: Casey Laulala. Tana Umaga won't be around forever. Conrad Smith is far from a certain long-term selection. The guy is gifted. The Grand Slam tour beckons perhaps?

Prospects: Semifinals, at least.

OTAGO

They put last year out to pasture as soon as the final whistle went. Otago finished eighth and scored just 17 tries, fewer than any other team.

The problem is they are short on star quality this season, with no Anton Oliver or Carl Hayman, at least early on, and will have to rely on a strong work ethic.

Danny Lee and Nick Evans should be among the better pairings behind the scrum, Seilala Mapusua is a strong-running midfield operator, and the likes of captain Craig Newby, Josh Blackie, Grant Webb, Filipo Levi and Tom Donnelly mean the pack should be decent.

Player to watch: Evans. A dominating campaign from the pivotal position won't hurt in the eyes of you know who (clue: Grand Slam).

Prospects: Will do better than eighth.

SOUTHLAND

Co-coaches Simon Culhane and David Henderson aren't going to have it easy. Then again, there's nothing new in that for the men from the deep south. It is shaping up as a tough campaign, but they are in the same boat as Northland in that there won't be any relegation fears.

They won't lack spirit, as shown in the match against the Lions, and will put out a decent loose forward trio in Paul Miller, Hale T-Pole and imported flanker Tim Boys from Otago.

Halfback Jimmy Cowan should have the incentive of a Grand Slam tour in his mind, and the likes of lock Hoani McDonald and prop and captain Clarke Dermody will ensure plenty of honest toil.

Player to watch: Cowan, who lost marks when he was sent home from the Junior All Blacks tour of Australia. Must regain ground in a competitive position.

Prospects: Will do it tough.