David Leggat: It's over and out from the underdog

One notable absentee in the leadup to tonight's NPC final is our old friend Mr Underdog. And amen to that.

Auckland obviously rate themselves. So they should. They won the round robin, swept aside North Harbour emphatically in their semifinal and are at home.

But there's been no downplaying noises from Otago, and rightly so. No one who witnessed the sense of togetherness, of commitment and skill they displayed in toppling the defending champions Canterbury in their semifinal will doubt they have the capacity to win tonight.

If they reproduce their form from Jade Stadium, they'll be desperately hard to stop. They clearly believe in themselves, and so there's been no negative talk about the enormity of their task, even if it's 29 years since the southerners won at Eden Park.

Rugby rarely produces wins for genuine underdogs - and we're not talking, say, Scotland beating Australia, but Japan toppling England or, if you prefer, Manawatu beating Auckland.

Too many things need to go wrong - or right - for a proper, five-star shock in rugby. The good teams can have an off day, operate on two cylinders and still be too strong for lesser opposition.

There is far greater scope for the underdog to succeed in most individual sports, like tennis, where the favourite can have a bad day with a wonky backhand or the expected fall guy can find an extra gear and catch his big name opponent off guard.

But not golf, where a Neville No-name must be superb over four days, first to position themselves for a tilt, then to see the job through over the last 18 holes.

Soccer has numerous examples of underdog triumph. That stems from the greater depth of quality teams. It is easily conceivable that Chile, ranked No 72, could beat the United States, ranked seventh.

By comparison, there is no chance Portugal, ranked 17th, could beat France, who are fourth on the International Rugby Board world rankings. And that's where rugby comes up short - not as short as league, which is serious in only three countries - and no amount of IRB puffery ahead of World Cups will hide that.

As for cricket, what about Bangladesh tipping over cocky Australia at Cardiff in the NatWest Series in June or Kenya beating the West Indies at the 1996 World Cup. Nothing is more likely to switch journalistic minds off than a coach seeking to grasp the low ground in the leadup to what should be a relatively even contest.

It is either designed to lower an opponents' guard or to stoke the fires of players. Probably both. Either way, it often becomes ludicrous as perfectly capable athletes start talking themselves down.

So, for that, hearty thanks to Wayne Graham and Pat Lam for making sure their teams believe in their capabilities and have said so ahead of tonight's kickoff.

And by the way, the most deserving teams are running onto Eden Park. Why? Because they made the semifinals, then won last weekend, so there can be no argument that the top two teams this season are here.

The All Black announcement tomorrow adds an extra element of intrigue to the final. But if Graham Henry and his fellow selectors haven't finalised their 35-strong squad for the United Kingdom by now, there'll be no more than one or two spots still up for discussion. Perhaps a lock and a prop. Maybe a loose forward.

Henry has already signalled there won't be anyone who'd fall into the bolter category. And that's another thing. Who would constitute a bolter? Steve Devine? Saimone Taumoepeau? Craig Newby? Nick Evans? No. Why? They've all been All Blacks inside the past two years and are therefore bolterproof.

The professional age it seems has brought an end to the days of the genuine surprise.