Bonus point enough for southerners to advance

Air New Zealand Cup preview: Northland vs Southland, Whangarei, 2.35pm

The lowdown: This promises to be interesting because of the arresting effect of the bonus point. If Southland get a bonus point - either by scoring four tries or finishing within seven points of Northland - they will be the final quarter-finalist in the Air New Zealand Cup.

Northland could still prevail in today's match, however, if they win and stop the southerners getting a bonus point. If Northland win, but without a bonus point, Southland would go through as they have beaten Northland in their most recent head-to-head encounters, and would progress if the points are tied.

So, to pip Southland for that last playoff spot, Northland will have to win, score a bonus point and prevent Southland from scoring one. So this has every show of being an entertaining game. The Northlanders need to win - and comfortably - and there is every likelihood we will see a fair bit of the Northland backs in action.

Southland, meanwhile, will likely play it tight. They have a good loose trio and will try to control the match and hit Northland on the counter.

Look out for: Northland trying to use dangerous wingers Rene Ranger and Tony Koonwaiyou but the Southland pack, even without Hoani MacDonald, will test the Northland ability to feed those two. The battle between the two sets of flankers, Hale T-Pole and Dion Bates for Southland and Joel McKenty and Justin Collins, will be vital in possession terms and Northland could shade matters in the loose if No 8 Jake Paringatai continues the form he has displayed all season.

Both first five-eighths - David Holwell from Northland and Blair Stewart from Southland via Canterbury - are old-fashioned in style, liking to control territory with kicking from hand and with excellent high-return goalkicking. Stewart may even be putting in a late bid for a possible Super 14 place, with the 22 missing All Blacks opening up opportunities.

What we think: Southland, just - though this is very tough to pick, as Northland will be fiery and smoking with the possibility of a playoff spot. But Southland's defence is good and they have enough oomph with players such as winger Watisoni Lotawa to cause trouble on the counterattack.

Northland: Hayden Taylor/Marshall Milroy, Tony Koonwaiyou, Josh Levi, Daniel Bowden, Rene Ranger, David Holwell, David Gibson, Jake Paringatai, Joel McKenty, Justin Collins, Vula Maimuri, Daniel Goodwin, Stan Wright, Tim Dow, Tony Coughlan. Reserves: Jamie Pinder, Bronson Murray, Brad Taylor, Eroni Gndolo, John Senio, Matt Faleuka, Marshall Millroy/Glen Martin.

Southland: Kendrick Lynn, Willie Rickards, Jason Kawau, Phil Dawson, Watisoni Lotawa, Blair Stewart, Jimmy Cowan, Iona Sipa/Mark McHugh, Dion Bates, Hale T-Pole, Josh Bekhuis, Rees Logan, Clarke Dermody (captain), David Hall, Jamie Mackintosh. Reserves. Jason Rutledge, Jayden Murch, Daniel Ramsey, Mark McHugh/Iona Sipa, Alesana Muliaina/Adam Clark, James Wilson, Pehi Te Whare.