Air NZ Cup preview: All change at the Bay

Hawke's Bay ($3) v Counties ($1.36)
Napier, 2.35pm, today

The lowdown: Hawke's Bay have done the honourable thing after two losses - sacrificed their skipper. Mutu Ngarimu has not only been replaced in the starting line-up for today's visit of Counties Manukau but also axed from the 22-man squad. He is one of five changes made by coach Brendon Ratcliffe. Last time Ngarimu was dropped, four years ago, he played rugby league - this time he thought better of it and yesterday turned out for Taradale against Havelock North in the Maddison Trophy final.

Today's game is, realistically, the Bay's best chance of a win in their first season back in top-flight rugby for 12 years. But this looks beyond a side that has yet to score a point in the Air NZ Cup (they've conceded 82) and Counties showed against Otago a fortnight ago that they are no pushovers. They ran the southerners close and, with a little more composure, could have snatched a win. Coming off the bye, Counties have made four changes and will be eager to score a famous first victory in the new competition.

Look out for: Israel Dagg - the 18-year-old Magpies fullback must surely have the best name in the Air NZ Cup. Presumably he doesn't have any Lebanese friends.

What we think: Counties will win. They are the best of the new boys and, in Kevin Putt, have a coach able to get the best out of his players. Hawke's Bay will probably have to wait until the repechage round, when they will take on fellow heavyweights Manawatu and Tasman, to get a chance to experience that winning feeling. Northland certainly won't feel any pity for them when the two teams meet in a fortnight.

Hawke's Bay - I. Dagg, R. Glover, N. Mauger, J. Wright, L. Raikabula, M. Berquist, D. Lee, P. Tokakece, T. Ioasa, M. Johnson, W. Crutchley, L. Lokotui (c), T. Symes, D. Logan, C. Newland. Res: K. Lowe, D. Briggs, B. Evans, W. Raihania, C. Shepherd, A. Clarke, J. Wilson. C-Manukau - K. Koiatu, L. Masaga, N. Ta'auso, M. Sa'u, T. Tuifua, B. Feeney, B. Meyer (c), W. Setitaia, J. Maher, T. Tuifua, A. Van der Heijden, K. Ormsby, S. Lemalu, J. Fonokolafi, S. Kepu. Res: G. Henson, P. Taula, C. Elvin, L. Mealamu, T. Nathan, N. Watson, K. Hancy.