By CHRIS RATTUE
Southland rugby chief executive Roger Clark makes no bones about the effect dropping to the NPC second division would have on his union.
"It would be absolutely devastating," he says.
Southland have lived on a rugby knife-edge and will probably continue to do so, clinging valiantly every year to the top division and hardly wanting to contemplate what relegation might mean.
They have been second-division champions four times since the NPC was introduced in 1976, but it is the company you keep rather than trophies in the cabinet that counts here.
On Sunday, Southland face a cut-throat battle to avoid going into the promotion-relegation game when they play bottom-placed Northland in Invercargill.
While there are several possible scenarios, the Southland players do know this: if they walk off Rugby Park without at least a bonus point their union is skating on thin ice.
Then again, one of those bonus points might be their ticket to survival.
Clark estimates that since Southland returned to the first division in 1997, they have invested about $1 million a year in building teams.
Those teams have finished last three times and accumulated just eight wins in nearly six completed seasons.
Sunday's match will be Southland's 1000th first-class game, and many decades ago they were a rugby powerhouse in this country.
Yet if they gain their third win of the season on Sunday, this will be their best first-division campaign, eclipsing the two wins and a draw last season.
The first division may be a rocky road for Southland, but they want to continue travelling on it.
"We have been building a young team but we would lose almost all of our players if we went into the second division," says Clark.
"We'd also immediately lose $1 million in revenue.
"Just look at how many second-division players are in the Super 12. The reason we can keep good young players here is they know it gives them a chance of a Super 12 contract.
"We are looking at this game as a battle for survival. We don't talk about it, but that's how everyone feels.
"We've worked very hard to build a team and we've got young guys who can achieve a lot over the next few years.
"We're disappointed with where we are on the table. In the main, we haven't been thrashed and there have been a few games where we've lost in that 10-point margin, which doesn't get you a bonus point."
For Northland, just getting to Invercargill is a logistical headache. They have to book out regular flight services, and often need six small planes for the initial leg to get their A and B sides plus luggage out of Whangarei, as they begin to hop their way to the Deep South.
Sometimes players in the B team who work for a living have to leave Whangarei a few days before kickoff.
The equation is simple for Northland. They must win and - depending on how Bay of Plenty fare against Waikato the day before - may have bonus point situations to deal with as well.
Northland can expect a chilly reception in Invercargill, where Southland have eked out two- and three-point wins over Wellington and Taranaki this season.
An average of 6000 people have turned up to Southland's home games, from a district of 98,000 people, 55,000 of them living in Invercargill.
On Sunday the union is expecting 8000.
Says Clark: "There's a lot of pressure on the players and we'll see on Sunday how they cope with that."
NPC schedule/scoreboard
NPC Fight for survival
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