Middle row could let us down

By JOHN DRAKE

I stand by my prediction of a few weeks ago that the All Blacks will win the Tri-Nations series, but as the exciting prospect of a clash against the old foe draws near, there are some signs that make me nervous about our prospects in Cape Town.

To start with, the positives. The All Blacks should win this test. They have had a sound preparation, have good morale and discipline within the team, and are being built on a constant selection policy.

Anton Oliver has provided impressive and refreshing leadership and he seems to have the respect of one and all.

Oliver is also being backed up by second-level leadership from the likes of Taine Randell, Justin Marshall, Jeff Wilson and the impressive Norm Maxwell.

The All Blacks also have players coming into form at the right time - Wilson, Oliver, Tony Brown, Jonah Lomu, Doug Howlett, to name some.

And this opening match is being played at sea level in what might be conditions that suit the All Blacks.

However, there are some areas of real concern, in particular the scrum and lineout - there is the potential for the All Blacks to struggle in the forwards in this test.

It needs repeating that there is far too much reliance on Maxwell in the lineouts - they need to use Reuben Thorne more at the back.

And while I believe Wayne Smith and his fellow selectors have picked the best front- rowers, Maxwell and Troy Flavell struggle to provide the necessary grunt in the middle row.

Flavell is a converted flanker and is still not a great pusher.

Maxwell will give everything, but is not physically suited to providing grunt.

While there are fewer scrums now, they are still a vital psychological contest at this level. Australia beat the Lions in the second test in Melbourne on two crucial scrums, and the Lions never recovered their confidence.

The All Blacks' three-week layoff is also a major worry. It will have affected the hardness of the team - just look at Australia in the first test against the Lions.

Of course, South Africa have also had a layoff, but during that time they have been bagged from one end of the country to the other.

The media, the public and even the Government are after them. They have been given no show of winning and it is just the sort of situation that makes them extra dangerous.

I still believe that, even in professional sport, motivation remains a vital factor. In terms of the physical build-up for the two teams, the All Blacks have the advantage.

But South Africa showed in the Super 12 that they have the talent to mix it, and in terms of desperation, it may be the home side that has the important advantage.