Mass scramble for top or chop

By WYNNE GRAY

Let the scramble begin. With the NPC about to enter its final round, only Canterbury, Taranaki and Northland will be unaffected by this weekend's results.

For the rest it is all about the top or the chop - the semifinals or the relegation rumble.

After their resounding Ranfurly Shield victory against Auckland, Canterbury cannot be overtaken as top qualifier, but have no idea who they will meet in the playoffs.

The top side meet the fourth qualifier and the second team clash with the third.

North Harbour will remain in the final four, though their finishing position could change if they slip up against Southland and Waikato upset Canterbury in the last shield challenge of the season.

Waikato, Otago, Auckland and Wellington are queuing up for the two vacancies behind Canterbury and Harbour.

If a series of unusual results happen, it is possible Waikato, Otago, Auckland and Wellington could all finish equal. Under the NZRFU regulations, points differential will be required to separate multiple ties and find the final two qualifiers.

Wellington coach Dave Rennie remained optimistic about his side beating Otago this week and sneaking through to defend their title.

"You never give up. We just have to keep our focus," he said.

"Our only chance is to beat Otago, take a bonus point and make sure they don't get any points. Then we need Auckland to either lose or draw against Counties Manukau."

The permutations are not as many at the bottom of the competition, but the outcome is just as murky.

The last side drop automatically to division two next season and the team who finish 10th have the home-ground advantage for a meeting with the second-division champions, with the winners to be a first-division side next season.

Counties Manukau sit last and play neighbours Auckland on Sunday. Unless Counties win this game or draw and earn a bonus point, they will be relegated.

Twin bonus points for a close defeat and four tries would not be enough to save them because they would then finish no better than equal with Bay of Plenty, who beat them in the weekend boilover.

Round-robin results will be used to separate two tied teams.

If Counties beat Auckland and Southland and Bay of Plenty lose, Counties would match Southland in 10th equal place.

Counties and Southland drew their pool game, so points differential (which just favours Counties) would decide their fate.

By Sunday, Auckland might be unable to make the final four if Otago have beaten or taken two bonus points against Wellington and Waikato have got bonus points against Canterbury.