Kickers could decide playoff position

By WYNNE GRAY

So it has come down to this. Auckland and Wellington have to ignore the range of permutations involving Otago and the last NPC playoff place.

They must treat tonight's match as a cut-throat contest, where the winner advances to the playoffs and the loser starts summer training.

So who survives and who is wounded? Call the statisticians and they will deliver the figures. Auckland have conceded just 12 tries, Wellington 20; Auckland have scored 40 and Wellington 37.

Auckland have won away from home twice this season, Wellington have lost at the Cake Tin once. Both lost to competition leaders Waikato.

Make your own interpretations. It can only be on gut feeling, instinct or a hunch if you are trying to find a winner. The TAB may have spoken for many when it refused to split the sides.

Cop out? Maybe, but try searching for consistent patterns to find a winner.

After their work against Otago, Auckland suggested they had the tight-five grunt to cause Wellington some problems in that area of their game which has been regularly suspect.

But Wellington have shored up that fragility, a repair job which has allowed their exciting loose trio and dangerous backs to make the impact opponents fear.

Captain Tana Umaga can cut any side apart, Christian Cullen is regaining his freewheeling potency, Lome Fa'atau and Brad Fleming are true speedsters.

It is a luxury for any side to leave Jonah Lomu and Pita Alatini on the bench.

David Holwell and Paul Steinmetz are able to work as twin pivots either side of the ruck, an area where Wellington may have an edge over Auckland who will use Carlos Spencer exclusively as first receiver.

Auckland will present a more controlled threat, they will work into the attacking zone or look, like Canterbury, to strike from turnovers.

They will need to be very energetic and more inventive than they were against Canterbury and Waikato.

It will be the heaviest pressure some of the raw Aucklanders have faced, though, curiously, the selectors have ignored one very impressive rookie, Angus MacDonald, in favour of Justin Collins.

In the swirling stadium breeze, it could come down to goalkicking - Holwell against Spencer - and the impact of the subs.