Peter Bills: A touring squad ripe to be slaughtered

It would not have taken the world champion South Africans two minutes to pinpoint two key weaknesses in Ian McGeechan's Lions squad announced yesterday for the tour there this northern summer.

For sure, there are some surprise choices, and some enterprising ones.

I thoroughly welcome the unexpected selection of Munster's 21-year-old centre Keith Earls.

Earls is an exciting counterattacking runner who could achieve considerable things on the hard grounds of the Republic.

And if ever a player deserved a Lions accolade for years of unstinting efforts it must be 34-year-old Alan Quinlan. He won't let anyone down.

If Welsh captain Ryan Jones is the biggest surprise omission, that worthy servant in the boiler room of the scrum, England's Simon Shaw, is perhaps the most extraordinary selection.

At 35, Shaw is the sole survivor (apart from coach Ian McGeechan) of the successful 1997 Lions in South Africa.

Since then, he has battled injuries and misfortunes in equal measure. But the Lions coaches have accepted that Shaw's hard-nosed approach will be badly needed.

Scotland's abrasive Australian-born lock Nathan Hines is included for similar reasons.

But the admission from McGeechan's assistant coach Warren Gatland that there had been discussions about the last few places right up until the final hours before the announcement revealed the difficulty the Lions selectors have had. Gatland called it "the toughest selection process I have ever been involved in".

It is true that there is potentially a huge, powerful Lions pack to take on the likes of Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield, John Smit and Schalk Burger in the Springbok forwards. But the Lions could be undermined by two crucial weaknesses.

Having gone chiefly for heavyweight grunters in the second row and a couple of hard-driving No 8s, they look short of real lineout jumpers, Paul O'Connell excepted. Already, the possibility of moving Welsh lock and lineout jumper Alun-Wyn Jones to the backrow has been discussed. This reveals the Lions' fears in that respect.

The other crucial area where the tourists could be exposed is at first five-eighths. If Stephen Jones in particular, surely the favourite for the test job, gets injured, the Lions will be badly exposed. The Springboks would quickly focus on Irishman Ronan O'Gara's suspect defence.

The most successful Lions tours of the past 40 years, 1971 to New Zealand and 1974 to South Africa, both had world-class halfbacks to control the game. Gareth Edwards and Barry John (in 1971) and Edwards and Phil Bennett (in 1974) gave those Lions sides a composure, quality and direction which put the tourists in the box seats.

With the best will in the world, the 2009 Lions don't possess halves of that ilk. Of the halfbacks, Mike Phillips is a physical competitor, Harry Ellis and Tomas O'Leary worthy and doughty fighters.

But there isn't a No 9 of world-class genius in the Lions' ranks and that, together with the thin resources at first five, leave the Lions looking vulnerable.

There was talk yesterday of England's New Zealand-born centre Riki Flutey playing first five-eighths if Jones or O'Gara were ruled out. This spreads the jam alarmingly thinly.

In fact, if you go through the 37 names announced yesterday, how many would gain entry to a World XV, always the acid test of quality? In my view, just two would qualify - Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll. That is the size of the 2009 Lions challenge.

I fully expect these Lions to be competitive and with the personnel they have on board, they should also play some highly entertaining rugby in the true Lions tradition. But whether they can upset the world champions in their own backyard looks another matter entirely.