John Drake: Watch out Boks, Eddie's gone quiet

COMMENT

There's probably a strong feeling that a mighty Springbok pack is going to wreak havoc in Perth and lead South Africa to glory against the Wallabies.

But I've got a feeling the Aussies may be a little bit too smart, and will sneak the win.

Wallaby coach Eddie Jones has won a reputation around the world as Eddie the Moaner, but he has been notable by his absence in the press build-up this week.

He's obviously decided to keep his own counsel. And when Eddie goes quiet, I get even more suspicious.

To start, let's look at the scrum battle.

I was mightily impressed with the Springbok scrum against the All Blacks. The forwards dealt with most attempts to wheel them very well.

But the Australians will know they can't get into a scrum battle, and the way to avoid it is to keep recycling the ball, and retain possession. And Australia are very good at this.

Helping their cause will be two flyers, Phil Waugh and George Smith, playing in the loose forwards.

On this point, I feel a bit sorry for Radike Samo, who has been dropped.

He got to play in the wet in Wellington, conditions which don't suit him, and now misses out in Perth where it should be more suitable.

He turned down a career at Newcastle to be a Wallaby, but might end up on the test sidelines for a while. His replacement, the hardworking Queenslander John Roe, could be exactly what Australia needs off the bench.

Schalk Burger is a fine footballer, but I don't rate him in the same league as a fetcher as Smith and Waugh so Australia should have a distinct advantage in the race for the ball. If they win that, scrums shouldn't be too much of a problem.

I also rate Jeremy Paul above Brendan Cannon. He's bulkier, so that might bring some slight improvement to the Australian scrum. But having the short Waugh and Smith on board could make Australia struggle in the lineouts.

The Springboks relied heavily on their torpedo backline defence against the All Blacks.

They were aided in this by the All Blacks' static ball.

The All Blacks often left the ball at the back of the ruck, meaning De Wet Barry and the others could time their charges.

I doubt if the Wallabies will play into their hands like that - George Gregan and friends will be a little quicker and smarter.

I'm also sure that Jones will have a quiet word to referee Chris White, and more importantly the touch judges, asking them to keep an eye out for offside work from the Boks.

And if the Springboks get their rushing tactics wrong, Stephen Larkham and Matt Giteau are just guys to take advantage, with Larkham running from deep.

Even in the Wellington wet and with little ball, the Wallaby backs showed glimpses of how dangerous they can be.

They might even have a slightly more dangerous unit than we have.

As for when South Africa has the ball, expect the Australians to pile the pressure on first five-eighths Jaco van der Westhuyzen. They will see him as a potential weak point.

Springboks coach Jake White has talked up the Perth factor, and if his team really believe Australia have surrendered some advantage by playing at a rugby outpost, it will help the visitors.

I am surprised the Australian Rugby Union is flying the flag in a rugby outpost, rather than looking after a stronghold and packing out the stadium in Sydney.

With Gregan back and the wily Australians desperate for a win, I'm going with them.

But it will be all, as the the loser will know they are only making up the numbers.