John Drake: Wallabies must break old plan

Mils Muliaina on the burst. Marty Melville / Getty Images

Forget about player rotation, dumbing down of test matches as contests and the paranoia about next year's World Cup. Tomorrow's test is very important to both teams, for a variety of reasons.

The Wallabies desperately need a rethink on how to beat this All Black team.

The mechanical style of the Macqueen and Jones eras is well and truly over and yet coach John Connolly has continued with much the same style, using many of the same personnel.

The Wallabies must break up their existing game plan and seriously challenge the All Blacks by taking risks in attack and defence.

The current percentage pattern used to win the majority of contests against the All Blacks, but now it's the reverse. No longer do the All Blacks crack in the last few minutes, miss vital goal kicks or blow tryscoring opportunities against the Wallabies.

I believe a few changes from the Wallabies could unsettle the All Blacks.

The change at openside flanker of George Smith for Phil Waugh has had a few eyes rolling, but frankly it had to happen. Richie McCaw has the wood on Smith and the All Black style of play at the breakdown has virtually eliminated Smith.

Waugh will be quicker to the breakdown and will slow the ball down - and maybe concede a few penalties.

Stephen Larkham needs help, both in terms of better quality ball and his playmaking strategy.

After an impressive Super 14, George Gregan has reverted to type - he's unwilling to make those old devastating runs and is passing without pace. Now the man and his game seem so cool the passion and fire has gone. Unless this changes, Larkham will continue to struggle.

If I was Connolly, I would swap Matt Giteau and Larkham around during the game, mix things up to confuse the All Black defensive lines.

Stirling Mortlock is a great player, has intelligence, strength and total commitment to the cause, but he may need to look to the outside break or quick pass rather than the now predictable cut up the middle.

It must be tempting to attack Aaron Mauger and now the youngster, Isaia Toeava, but with McCaw, Jerry Collins and others now helping the backs out, the direct route for the Wallabies doesn't bring the old rewards.

Lote Tuqiri and Chris Latham can break defences from set and second phase play, but they need quick ball and space. Latham can make something out of nothing and should be encouraged to have a go. Sure, he will make mistakes but unless the Wallabies chance their arm they will lose again and be no further forward in trying to figure out a successful game plan against these opponents.

For the All Blacks tomorrow is about different challenges.

The lineout needs to at least break even. With fewer scrums, the lineout is the place to launch structured attacking plays without the nuisance of opposition forwards. Therefore the current lineout problems have really negated any chance they can have to score tries from set pieces.

Will it get better? Of course, if only because it is so bad improvement is the only way to go. I assume Robin Brooke's comments would have been about getting back to the basics, keeping things simple and training with the pressure of matchplay in mind rather than use the theory of unopposed preparation. In other words get aggressive. I wonder if Chris Jack and Jason Eaton need to be used more, particularly early on.

Using McCaw and Rodney So'oialo should be the exception, not the rule.

This part of the game will be the most closely watched of the contest, and is really the only area where the Wallabies will be confident.

If the All Blacks break even here, then where do the Wallabies go for inspiration?

The All Blacks need to create more opportunities to score tries and increase the conversion of opportunities into finishes.

It seems they are almost in a holding pattern of not wanting to chance their arm. Maybe the odd 50/50 pass should be tried.

Like the Wallabies, they need to move to a higher level of attacking intensity. With the Bledisloe Cup already back in the trophy cabinet, this is the time to really go for it.

After all the player rotations it seems the only guys to have emerged to put pressure on the real A team are Eaton and Toeava.

Eaton is pushing Ali Williams but frankly the way the lineouts are going any combination of Jack, Williams or Eaton is acceptable as all are sound in scrum and general play but inadequate at lineout.

In reality, Toeava is at centre because Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu are injured.

Rugby brains far keener than mine say he has the qualities to be great, so play him consistently in one position so he can make it his own. At the end of all the rotation, he may be the only genuine find of the series.

A prediction? How about this ...

* A 5.30pm kick off in brilliant conditions in a packed Garden of Eden full of humour and expectation.

* The All Blacks lineout will improve enough to give some quality set piece ball.

* The Wallabies will attack out wide and put away the kicking game with Gregan running at the All Blacks at least half a dozen times in the first half alone.

* Joe Rokocoko, Doug Howlett and Mils Muliaina will handle the ball more in 80 minutes than they have in the previous seven tests this year.

* The defences will be organised and strong but will eventually wilt under the pressure of sustained brilliance of the attacks, ending in ...

* A hard-fought but deserved All Black victory against an Aussie team which has rediscovered their passion, flair and intelligence.

And who says test rugby is becoming terminal between World Cups after a game like that?