John Drake: I'm backing Springboks

It might be seen as a bit of an upset, but I'm backing South Africa to open with a Tri-Nations win over Australia.

There's a pattern to the Tri-Nations. South Africa hold no fears about Australia, probably because of the way they play the game.

They tend to have the wood on them. New Zealand have the advantage over South Africa, but struggle against Australia.

South Africa might not be in the best of rugby shape, but at least they have settled on the way they are going to play the game.

Rudolf Straeuli is a very pragmatic coach. He was quite innovative with the Sharks a few years ago, but he cuts his cloth to fit what he believes are his resources.

Straeuli flirted with an expansive game for South Africa, but has basically chucked it out and gone for a power forward pack and a limited approach.

South Africa have the players for a wider game, but Straeuli appears to have lost patience. And long term, flamboyance is not what wins the World Cup.

Straeuli may be losing some friends along the way, although they'll come running back if he manages to lift the World Cup in November. And that's the only thing that counts this year.

South Africa's strength will be Australia's weakness. Australia should be handy in the lineouts, but their tight five is not daunting, although typical Australian sporting confidence means they always seem to hang on in the scrums.

South Africa will want to attack Australia up front, while the Australians see their best hopes, and path to a third World Cup triumph, out wide.

Australian coach Eddie Jones must rely on the continuity game, a-la the Brumbies.

This will be an interesting clash of national sporting psyches. Australia are always bubbly and confident, and are already talking up their prospects. South Africans tend to be fatalistic about their teams' prospects and draw strength from what they perceive as adversity.

I believe all three sides must go into this series with guns blazing. You might be able to keep the odd trick up the sleeve, but there's no point in hiding major parts of your game and hope to unveil them at the World Cup.

We can already see how South Africa are going to play, and Australia can't hide any strategies in the forwards because they haven't got any. New Zealand remain the most mysterious of the three.

This Tri-Nations is all about building confidence and surging towards the ultimate goal. You've got to try out your game plan under stress, and players must have confidence in themselves and the men beside them for the crunch times ahead.

So we should finally find out what the John Mitchell plan is. We know he likes multi-skilled players, but we've yet to really see what it all adds up to.

Mitchell made it clear he was doing the building block thing in the first three tests, and now we will find out what it is all leading to.

He has something in mind. He and Robbie Deans are not mugs, and I'm sure the return of Aaron Mauger is a key to what they will be doing.

The encouraging sign was the work of the forwards in the first two tests against England and Wales.

History will reduce this Tri-Nations series to a footnote. In terms of World Cup aspirations though, it is vital.