John Drake: Bok copycats falling flat

I'll open with a trip down memory lane because it involves an incident that reminds me of Rudolf Straeuli's Springboks.

While playing for a French club in the 1980s, we came up against the top side, who scored from a set piece with an amazing move which made the Going brothers' triple scissors look about as fancy as a dummy pass.

Our guys were absolutely in awe of this and for the rest of the year we trained and tried to copy it but never got it right.

It's a bit like the South Africans. They often seem to be trying to copy others without fully understanding what it's about, nor achieving much along the way.

That's one of the reasons why, despite the mass changes to the All Blacks pack, I can't see the South Africans getting too close in Dunedin tomorrow night.

You can't underestimate them, but the All Blacks are far too organised.

As for the changes to the Springboks - it's like a jigsaw and they just keep putting in new bits.

They have some very good players, such as Ashwin Willemse on the wing, but they haven't had time this year to gel. There still seems to be a conflict of styles and a first five-eighths who stands very deep, making it very hard for the guys outside to attack.

It's hard to tell where they're trying to go. We thought they would play 10-man football but against Australia - they tried to throw it around, but in a disorganised way which cost them points.

The All Blacks are spreading the ball quickly to their speed men out wide, and I can't see the South African's coping with that, even though a new All Black pack might face some testing moments.

And it's hard to see the introduction of Gcobani Bobo making much difference in the backs. I haven't seen a lot of the guy, but I just can't see him being a consistent international rugby player. He makes too many unforced errors and has crucial defensive lapses. He could be really exposed.

So, to the All Blacks. This is the big chance for the new guys to cement a place in the starting team. I'd say all the front row positions are up for grabs, although Keven Mealamu has probably got his nose in front.

No one expected such major changes. In my experience when you have good wins and introduce a couple of guys into the pack, the new guys always get the blame if it doesn't go well even though it's usually the senior guys who struggle.

This will put pressure on the guys who have remained - especially Ali Williams and Reuben Thorne. It could be a good thing for Thorne's leadership and game fronting up to the big South African pack.

Williams has always reacted well to the challenge in the Super 12. He was basically the only guy the Blues had to throw the ball to, and he didn't let them down. It's an interesting psychological ploy. Williams is a confident sort of fellow and he might react better to this than being told off and put in the corner. He's the leader of the lineout now.

We've still got to remember that the game has returned to the days when you cannot guarantee your own ball.

John Mitchell has taken a big risk because I'm sure he doesn't underestimate the Springboks. They're a better side than what they showed against Australia.

He has brought in a lot of experience, but they will have to battle hard and start well. Hoeft, Meeuws, Hammett - there is a lot of experience there. And Marty Holah - he's the kind of player you'd love to play with rather than against.

Brad Thorn at lock is an interesting move - a cold Dunedin might might suit him with the tight driving play required.

Mitchell has taken a calculated risk but he values winning too much to risk a loss. This clearly isn't rotation. These players are being asked the question - do you want to play lots of games or be the dirty dirties? This is their last chance.

So it's well done to Mitchell for now, although who knows. We might be saying something different after the game.

* On Jonah Lomu, it's fantastic that he's back playing rugby. It is a sensitive subject, and well done to him, but playing a practice game against Taranaki and lasting some NPC football is probably not the criteria Mitchell will pick a World Cup player on.