John Connolly: Over-reaction hurts Australia

Eddie Jones' over-reaction to Elton Flatley missing a gymnasium session has severely damaged Australia's chances against England tonight.

And the ramifications could reach all the way to the World Cup as Australia look to break a run of losses against England and also put a halt to their rising confidence.

Jones' policy of execution in the name of education is off the mark this time. The Wallabies are already missing Stephen Larkham and will be severely short-changed with Nathan Grey at No 10 in Melbourne.

The crowd of up to 90,000 will be robbed of seeing the best Australian team, and the rest of the Wallaby side have also been dealt a blow.

In Flatley's case a serious fine was appropriate. This is a test match, not a Super 12 game, and there are no tomorrows.

Australia have just four further tests to get their game right. They have been good on the scoreboard but poor in performance against Ireland and Wales so cannot afford to derail their planning like this.

Having coached Flatley for a number of years I know him to be very disciplined. I'm not defending what he did, but there is a huge issue here about night tests and what the players can do to wind down afterwards. I know many cannot get to sleep for hours after these tension-filled games.

The Wallaby coach's decision to axe Flatley gives England a helping hand towards a fourth consecutive win over Australia. Victory would give them another confidence boost before resting up, then starting the final buildup to the World Cup - where they should be rated as the firm favourites.

If Flatley had to go, then Julian Huxley was a better option. He's got a kicking game with both feet, and is a solid goalkicker.

Grey's tactical kicking will be sorely tested. He kicks only with his left foot, and Steve Kefu and Morgan Turinui outside him have no kicking game.

This will force Australia into a ball-in-hand approach, taking on the great white wall of defence and trying to match England at the breakdown.

Australia have George Smith and New Zealand Richie McCaw as fine breakdown exponents, but England are collectively No 1 in this area.

And Australia cannot afford to rely on all those switches they used behind the breakdown against Wales.

They must attack the defensive line. If you can't control the line against England, don't bother turning up. George Gregan will have to be at his creative best.

I believe the pack England are playing against Australia are stronger than the one Clive Woodward put out against the All Blacks. Phil Vickery and Trevor Woodman are their best props. Jason Leonard and Graham Rowntree, who faced the All Blacks, are tough but Vickery and Woodman are stronger ball carriers.

So I'm picking England to win in Melbourne, and installing them as decent World Cup favourites. Timing is everything in sport, and the rest period after this test will suit them nicely.

They're not just a top forward pack. They have depth at halfback with world-class players in Matt Dawson and Kyran Bracken, and pace out wide. They've also brought more width to their game, but know how to grind out test wins.

Then there's Jonny Wilkinson. He now holds the mantle as the best test No 10 in the game. He's courageous too, willing to mix it, which makes you wonder how long he will last.

Wilkinson is also an A-grade goalkicker, and goalkickers still win test matches, as the All Blacks found out. I have less faith in Joe Roff's goalkicking going into this test.

Having coached in Europe for a couple of seasons, I can say that many in the Southern Hemisphere have got it wrong in claiming we are still ahead of the Northern Hemisphere. Wales are a mess, but England and France are as good as anything down here.

It is a tough business, playing and coaching in Europe. It's a hard, long campaign. I think Martin Johnson played 44 matches one season, and he's been doing that sort of thing year after year.

In Australia and New Zealand, there is an environment which allows players to develop to their full potential. In Europe, it's a week-to-week grind. The hard men, the cream, rise to the top in England - and test match rugby is a tough place.

You've got to be hard-nosed about winning internationals. I just wish Eddie Jones had been in that mood when he dealt with the Flatley affair.


* John Connolly is a former coach of Queensland.