Dylan Cleaver: Don't bet against Umaga effect

Tana Umaga has helped instil Counties-Manakau players with confidence. Photo / Paul Estcourt

Tipping results in a public forum is a bit like a pub quiz. You give it the fist pump when you get one right, but mutter an exasperated, "Of course, if I'd thought about it a bit longer," when you've wrongly nominated the Matterhorn as the tallest mountain in the Alps.

So let it be known that in last week's Super Sport, Southland, Wellington and Auckland all got the fist-pump treatment. A few didn't, most glaringly Counties Manukau versus Otago.

"Unless Counties can get their hands on the ball they will lose heavily ... Otago by 8," was the gist of it. Actual result, Counties 29, Otago 13.

Of course, if I'd thought about it a bit longer there would have been an acknowledgement that, a) it has been a long time since Otago rugby has earned deference and, b) while Counties finished dead last in the national provincial championship last year while conceding two points for every one they scored, that was in the pre-Tana Umaga era.

But can one man really make that much of a difference?

The key statistics from Saturday's match at Pukekohe were striking. Counties were hammered 17-5 in the penalty count, had two men sent to the bin, spent large chunks of time in their own half against a team who have the enormous advantage of being a franchise base (even if the franchise is a struggling one).

They were statistics that would have killed Counties in the past, but the truth of it was they were vastly superior to Otago in every way. They looked like a genuine first division outfit.

The team that specialised in flash, dash then crash turned instead to guts and glory. During one period in the first half when they were down to 14 men, Counties repelled 16 close-quarter phases then pilfered an intercept as Otago tried to find space out wide.

"People have associated us with x-factor backs like Sherwin Stowers and Tim Nanai-Williams, but not as much with that sort of grit and determination," coach Milton Haig said.

It is difficult not to keep coming back to Umaga. He's not the attacking force he was in his pomp, not even close, but the 37-year-old can still marshall a defence. More than that, it appears he may be able to make young, impressionable players around him better by his mere presence.

"I've been asked about the Tana factor about 10 times today," Haig said without sounding bored. "He has had a huge influence in what we do and he has since I started talking to him in France in February.

"He has a calmness under pressure, consistency and he has given our young guys confidence and self-belief . It's like, 'If Tana's here it can't be too bad'."

For all the positive vibes in Potato Country, it is too early to talk definitively of Tana and the Turnaround. One win does not a winter make.

This weekend they travel, something they've done successfully just once since reclaiming first division status in 2006, a statistic Haig describes as ridiculous.

They play Wellington, if not competition favourites, then pretty close to it. So only an absolute mug would tip Counties to pull off an upset against Tana's old team. Right?