With both test sides evenly matched there's a strong chance of the first draw in 20 years, writes Andrew Slack
KEY POINTS:
I always thought the Bledisloe Cup was about the All Blacks and the Wallabies. Apparently not so this time. Seemingly it's all about Graham Henry versus Robbie Deans.
Now I reckon Robbie is a decent guy, a very astute rugby coach and Australia are extremely lucky to have him - but I am sick to death of hearing about him.
And what's more, I figure he's pretty tired of hearing about him too.
Considering the publicity machines on both sides of the Tasman have recently been far kinder to the Wallaby coach than the All Black incumbent, I'm guessing Henry is also wearying of seeing his own name on every page he turns.
So for tomorrow night's match in Sydney, it might be about time to ignore the string-pullers and concentrate on the puppets. After all, the players are the ones who tend to score most of the actual points once the whistle is blown for the start of a test match.
To that end, an analysis of the squads each selection panel have come up with suggests to me a distinct possibility of the first draw between the teams for 20 years.
Don't go outlaying your grocery money on this result, but I dips my lid to anyone who can mount a valid argument that one side has a clear cut advantage over the other.
Supporters of the boys in gold have taken heart from signs of a forward effort against the Springboks that only the mean-spirited would refuse to acknowledge.
Sure, one scrummaging swallow doesn't make a pushover summer but there was enough evidence against the Boks to indicate to the Australian optimists among us, that the days of constant cringing at scrum time may be over.
Of course, the Wallaby front row needs to put together a string of such performances before convincing us all is well - but if they can, there's no argument the rest of the forward contingent is capable of doing some damage to opponents.
The return of some big guns to the New Zealand pack ensures a full-on battle between the two sets, but I believe the Wallabies can share the spoils in that area and we can dismiss all this century-old forward-based propaganda about test matches being won up front. This one, I reckon, will be won out back.
The two scrumhalves are finding their way in test rugby and let's not be naive enough to dismiss the efforts of Messrs Carter and Giteau as pivotal to the outcome, but it's numbers 11 through 15 who'll have the chance to prove the matchwinners this time. Not through some one-off, fancy-pants bit of skill, but rather through an 80-minute dominance of their opposite numbers.
If one individual can own the game out wide, his team should be home and hosed.
The question being begged is whether this individual will be wearing gold or black.
There were a few Australians giggling behind cupped hands following the naming of the New Zealand team on Tuesday, when Conrad Smith was overlooked for Richard Kahui. This was no sleight on the ability of the Chiefs centre but rather on the gamble of throwing an inexperienced test performer up against Australia's most experienced and, often as not, game-breaking player in Stirling Mortlock.
Naturally, Mortlock's withdrawal just hours after the All Blacks were named put an abrupt end to the snickering.
So who will step up among Tuitavake, Hynes, Cross, Sivivatu et al?
Who knows, but whoever does will surely steal some of the coach's thunder. Henry and Deans will have some influence on the result, but the more telling impact will come from the contests between the likes of Barnes and Nonu or Muliaina and Ashley-Cooper.
