Sir Clive Woodward has surely committed the cardinal mistake in his selected squad for the Lions tour of New Zealand.
He has left at home some of the hardest, toughest, nastiest rugby men available to him, and New Zealanders should smile broadly at the news.
Toughened, seasoned rugby men such as Ireland's Trevor Brennan, Colin Charvis of Wales, and the rugged Scots Tom Smith and Jason White have all been left out.
But these are men who know only one way to play: in a thoroughly abrasive, aggressive style. In other words, in the way that New Zealand rugby understands and acknowledges.
Even more remarkably, Woodward has selected 10 members of the Irish team which rarely fired throughout the Six Nations season and declined alarmingly.
First five-eighths Ronan O'Gara, who was so abject in the defeat by Wales at Cardiff, is included, likewise tight-head prop John Hayes who was destroyed by the French loosehead Sylvain Marconnet during the Ireland-France game.
If ever a game confirmed a player simply wasn't up to the standard required for a Lions squad, it was that day in Dublin. Likewise, O'Gara at Cardiff.
Last Sunday, in an Irish newspaper, Irish coach Eddie O'Sullivan confirmed he had major concerns in his front row. Yet two-thirds of the Irish front row - hooker Shane Byrne and tight-head Hayes - have been chosen, an extraordinary state of affairs.
Similar aberrations have been made in the selection at halfback and fullback.
Scot Chris Cusiter was dropped from the Scottish team during the Six Nations for his poor play, yet he has been chosen.
Welshman Gareth Cooper is a quick, lightweight halfback who was released by English club Bath a couple of seasons ago because he was seen as ineffective, erratic and not sufficiently physical in his play.
Somehow, deep in the labyrinth of Sir Clive Woodward's mind, there exists a view that on a foul, wet, cold, muddy day in Dunedin or Invercargill, Cooper will be the man. Ye Gods, it is some outside bet.
Then there is Ian Balshaw, another player released by Bath because of his inability to do the basics sufficiently well or be either reliable or injury free.
Woodward has always backed the enigmatic fullback and here is the latest evidence of that statement. Personally, and I have nothing against Balshaw, choosing him is the decision of the inveterate gambler.
The squad was announced in London on Monday amid Chaplinesque farce. Manager Bill Beaumont read out a list of 44 players, to be followed by Woodward saying that 42 had been chosen, leaving the door open for Jonny Wilkinson, Phil Vickery and Mike Tindall.
But if these Lions can't count up to 50 accurately, how are they going to plot the downfall of the strongest rugby nation in the world, circa 2005?
Or can anyone join the party? I thought the doorman at the airport hotel looked a distinctly useful bruiser. Maybe he'd like to come along, too. Measure him up for an Eden Park Lions suit because you never know: he might end up in the test team.
Seriously, this selection beggars belief in some areas. To include Charlie Hodgson of England at No 10 speaks eloquently of the lack of available world-class talent in that position.
Let me put it like this: the names of some previous Lions No 10s heading to New Zealand included Jack Kyle, Mike Gibson and Barry John. Point taken?
Hodgson's confidence in kicking at goal is so shot that he has told his club coach, Frenchman Phillippe Saint-Andre, that he doesn't even want to kick for Sale anymore. Yet here he is, about to set out on a Lions tour.
Well, anyone who believes that New Zealand is just the place to restore the shattered confidence of a British rugby player must be one of the world's eternal optimists.
Perhaps the key position for the Lions will be tight-head prop. If they can establish a powerful scrum to put the All Black pack on the back foot, thereby partly negating the licence to roam enjoyed by Richie McCaw, then they may have a chance.
But major question marks stand against their two favoured tight-heads. England's Julian White has been included, but it was less than two weeks ago that he went into a scrum on the Leicester practice ground and collapsed, writhing and screaming in pain.
The neck injury from which he has suffered intermittently had recurred. The injury kept him out of Leicester's Heineken Cup quarter-final that weekend.
Meanwhile, Vickery has been told he needs at least another three weeks to see if his broken arm has healed properly. His return to playing action has been put off.
But if neither made it for the first test in Christchurch on June 25, the Lions would presumably go in with Irishman Hayes at tighthead. The prospect is, frankly, alarming.
Sailors heading off to the South Seas in times gone by were traditionally wished God speed and had their drinking mugs filled up with grog the whole night before they left, to dull their anxiety at the dangers ahead.
Something similar might be appropriate for these Lions. They travel, it would seem, on a wing and a prayer.
* Peter Bills is a rugby writer for Independent News & Media in London
<EM>Peter Bills:</EM> A pride of Lions: yeah right
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