East Coast could find themselves where no other East Coast team have ever been after today's clash with Marlborough - on top of the second-division table.
But Joe McClutchie's men must beat a side who upset the formbook with a nailbiting 18-17 win over Manawatu last weekend.
And they would need Nelson Bays to beat or draw with leaders Hawkes Bay to take the top spot.
As he has done all season, coach McClutchie refuses to discuss the what-ifs.
"I'm more concerned with what we do than what other teams are doing," McClutchie said. "And that's not out of disrespect for other sides.
"You can spend so much time worrying about things that are out of your control. We'll put our house in order and hope that's good enough."
That philosophy has been the cornerstone of East Coast success in three seasons, with two third-division titles and now second place in division two.
But if skipper Wirihana Raihania and his side want any added incentive to beat Marlborough, they only have to look at the record books: Marlborough have won all six NPC encounters between the sides.
"That's something we would like to change," McClutchie said. "But we know it's going to be tough, particularly after Marlborough's win over Manawatu.
"That result keeps them in contention for a top-four place and they'll be keen to keep their run going."
Hawkes Bay have 20 points, East Coast 19 and Nelson Bays 16.
Chris Finch knows he is filling some big boots in Nelson Bays' biggest match of the season.
But his size eights will have to do when he replaces first five-eighths Warren Johnston, who is resting a groin injury.
Finch is taking today's start against Hawkes Bay at Trafalgar Park in his stride.
"I don't feel any pressure really," he said. "If anything, we know this game will be a little easier to play because we know we're in for a very torrid match. We'll be prepared mentally for it."
Named third-division player of the year in 1997, the former North Otago first five-eighths is among several key changes for the match.
Canterbury loan forwards Peter Bowden and Con Barrell will make their first appearances of the campaign.
Bowden's return is expected to stabilise an inconsistent Nelson Bays' lineout, while former All Black Barrell adds plenty of big-match temperament to an experienced front row.
Hawkes Bay have a young but uncompromising pack who will exploit any signs of hesitancy by the home forwards.
Dominance up front by Nelson Bays will minimise the threat posed by Hawkes Bay's pacey Zimbabwean winger, Karl Mudzamba, and allow less chance for former All Black and Otago halfback Stu Forster to impose himself on the match.
The match is likely to have a major bearing on semifinal venues later in the season .
Further down the table, Mid-Canterbury, for the first time this season, will start a match favoured to win.
Their home-town advantage in Ashburton should see them repel the Thames Valley challenge.
Mid-Canterbury started with a good win over Marlborough. However, since then, they have lost four games.
Thames Valley's record this season is similar to Mid-Canterbury's, with just one win.
The other game today is between bottom-placed King Country and fourth-placed Manawatu in Taumarunui.
King Country have had four straight losses; Manawatu are only seven points from the leaders.
In the third division, second-placed Poverty Bay (10 points) have the chance to go top as leaders Buller (14) have the bye.
Poverty Bay travel to Oamaru to take on North Otago, who are a point behind in third place.
Poverty Bay, led by third-division stalwart Trevor Crosby at halfback, downed Horowhenua-Kapiti 30-18 in their last match.
North Otago beat Poverty Bay twice last year, 46-7 in the round robin and 53-32 in the semifinal.
In other matches this weekend, South Canterbury host Horowhenua-Kapiti in Timaru and Wairarapa-Bush play West Coast in Masterton.
- NZPA
2001 NPC schedules/scoreboard
NPC Division One squads
East Coast look at dizzy heights
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