By CHRIS RATTUE
Counties Manukau will have to break a two-year Hawkes Bay winning streak to take the NPC second-division final.
Hawkes Bay's last defeat in the division was against Nelson Bays in the 2000 semifinal in Napier, and they crushed Counties Manukau 51-20 earlier this season.
So the odds appear stacked in Hawkes Bay's favour when they clash at McLean Park, Napier, this afternoon.
But the form guide suggests Counties Manukau have every chance of causing an upset.
There has been the odd tremble in the Hawkes Bay performances in recent weeks. Those around their camp believe they have inadvertently gone into "cruise mode" after a series of big wins early in the season.
Counties Manukau have gone the other way, finding some late-season form after they appeared headed for disaster with consecutive losses to Hawkes Bay and East Coast.
Counties Manukau manager Alan Dawson said the side had finally started to follow the game plans set by new coach Bruce Robertson.
"The attitude has really improved in the past few weeks and the players have taken ownership of the team," Dawson said. "We've actually had to pull them back a bit this week. They are so keen. You'd look around a corner and see them doing lineout practice on their own. We didn't want them over-hyped.
"They've finally seen what Bruce has been on about with some different sequences and patterns to the game. Now they are playing the way they have trained.
"It's not a case of knocking the flair out of them. There's still the opportunity for that, but only after the basics have been done."
Hawkes Bay have dominated the division through a strong forward pack who have been able to hold possession for long periods.
And the key for Counties Manukau today will be to match the home side's ball retention, and thus give the likes of Casey Laulala, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Amasio Valence attacking opportunities.
The Steelers have re-jigged their forward pack, bringing Semesi Saukawa into the loose forwards, while Kristian Ormsby moves to lock and Dion Kingi returns to No 8.
Valence, Laulala and Saukawa have slight injuries, but Dawson expects them to start.
Tighthead prop Tom Symes will return to the Hawkes Bay starting XV. His replacing of Clint Newland is the only change Magpies coach Kieran Keane has made to the side who beat Nelson Bays in last weekend's semifinal.
But Keane said star first five-eighth Tim Manawatu was still a doubtful starter because of his knee injury.
If Manawatu is sidelined, Richard Kinnear - who replaced him in the semifinal - will start and former Fijian Olympic Games hurdler Jovesa Naivalu will join the bench.
How they line up
Hawkes Bay: Jacob Kennedy, Ray Karauria, Sam Leung-Wai, Davis Norman, Sefulu Gaugau, Tim Manawatu, Donovan Hall; Mutu Ngarimu (capt), Dave Gower, Michael Johnson, Mark Atkinson, Lua Lokotui, Tom Symes, Mo Schwalger, Peter Bielski. Res: Danny Logan, Clint Newland, Matt Bird, Matt Mustchin; Jason Bird, Richard Kinnear, Afa Sauia.
Counties Manukau: Amasio Valence, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Casey Laulala, Duncan Bell, Niva Ta'auso, Quinton Sanft, Kevin Farrell; Dion Kingi, Wayne McEntee (capt), Semesi Saukawa, Ramon Lindsay, Kristian Ormsby, Josh Heke, Grant Henson, Alan McLean. Res: Likisone Misa, Latiume Maka, Robert Afoa-Peterson, Kitiona Viliamu; Joseph Heta, Stephen Donald, Massey Tuhakaraina.
Referee: Lyndon Bray (Wellington). Kickoff: 2.35pm
NPC schedule/scoreboard
Counties have every chance of an upset in Napier
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