Canterbury first - daylight second

By CHRIS LAIDLAW

In a world as volatile and unpredictable as this crazy one, there is no such a thing as a stone-cold certainty.

The next best thing, however, must be Canterbury for this year's NPC title.

At this stage in the competition none of the others come even close.

It isn't just a matter of what's on the scoreboard. It is the stunning simplicity of operation, speed of execution and practical application of the basics that has suddenly lifted Canterbury from the pack.

The demolition job inflicted on Otago looked almost ridiculously simple.

It wasn't, of course.

Otago remained competitive almost all of the way, but because of the quality of Canterbury's distribution, their use of space and the relentlessness of their backing up, Otago simply ran out of defenders time and again.

The higher the standard of performance the simpler it always looks, and Canterbury have settled into a rhythm which, if it can be maintained, will result in the systematic slaughter of those still waiting in the pens.

It is built around a huge defensive effort that is focused almost totally on achieving turnovers while the opposition are stretched to the maximum on attack, and pushing the ball wide, quickly, in counterattack.

If it isn't done well it can be risky, as Canterbury found out last year and at the beginning of this NPC season.

All the doubts appear to have been swept away in a whirlwind of precision rugby since then, however, and anyone who wants to stop them is going to have to take their own risks.

With their All Blacks back in the pack, it seems unlikely that any other NPC team can hope to get more than 50 per cent of the ball off Canterbury.

And with Marshall, Mehrtens, the Maugers, McDonald, Blair, Caleb Ralph and Co further out, there will be a sense of deep foreboding in the Auckland, Waikato, Taranaki and Wellington camps at the prospect of being taken apart the way Otago were.

Who can beat them?

Certainly not Taranaki or Waikato, unless they get very lucky.

Auckland might get close, but are too fragile when the ball is spilled to pose more than a mild threat.

The only team definitely capable of it are Wellington, the supreme risk-takers.

The reason why Wellington can do it is that they can, and do, win matches with 30-40 per cent of the ball.

And in spite of playing like a squad of Keystone Cops for much of the time, they can suddenly erupt when Umaga, Cullen and Lomu get things right.

Perhaps when the Wellington Ranfurly Shield challenge comes round next Saturday, we will see the match of the season.

It depends to a large extent on whether Wellington turn out as Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde.

And the most stimulating thing about them is that nobody, even they, know who it will be on the day.