This is going to be close

The Lions are coming and I can't wait. Maybe because the 1971 Lions tour was the first one I followed day by day, knew all the players and results, and so they have special appeal to me.

It's also probably because this is the first long tour since the Lions and Springboks tours of 1993 and 1994 respectively.

We also like the Lions because they have a reputation of playing attractive rugby, being very social and we usually beat them - always an attraction!

Will this team be any different from all the rest, except the 1971 version? Well, let's look at what's coming.

We all know about the large group of players and management and made smart comments, conveniently forgetting that it was a certain Graham Henry who recommended these changes after the 2001 Lions tour of Australia when he was in charge.

So is the group too big? Not for me. New Zealand is - probably alongside France - the toughest place to tour, so all the troops will be used.

Sir Clive Woodward wants to concentrate on winning the tests, so the other coaching staff is also warranted.

Will there be resentment and cliques in the touring party? Most probably, but in all teams there is always a bit of division from the lucky selected group and those not wanted.

How the management cope and keep the simmering from boiling is always the test. Frankly, I think Woodward, Ian McGeechan, Bill Beaumont and Co have been around enough to keep things moving.

What of the quality of personnel?

Woodward has stated the aim is to win every game on tour. This may be a bit tough and I suspect some of the lesser players will fall away.

But the upside to the tough provincial programme is that, as on all tours, some players who arrive with low expectations and reputations will end the tour as stars.

The Lions have six lead-up games to the first test and while we all think Woodward will stick to his usual selections of predominantly English players, I am not so sure.

Like all great coaches he will play the best, and reputations will count only until they play Bay of Plenty in the first match. After that form will count.

Woodward appears to place an emphasis on mental toughness and reliability in his teams. I am sure a few of the Celts will stand out in these areas and be selected as the tour develops.

I think the tour style of play will revolve around a sound scrum, a superior lineout, and a lot of driving and kicking for position. Remember, the tour is in June/July when the weather will definitely suit these tactics.

Only when this structure is established and all concerned have confidence in the basic structure will the backs will be let loose. Woodward has certainly shown the ability to develop an attractive style with England, and with the flair of captain Brian O'Driscoll and the likes of Jason Robinson and Shane Williams out wide, he will do so again, but only when the foundations are laid.

They will target what they believe to be the weakness of all their opposition and will have mountains of information and stats on not only the opposing teams but the stadiums, referees, officials, towns and cities. In fact, you name it, they will have information on it.

In short this will be the best prepared, organised, resourced and funded team to tour New Zealand.

They will expect results, and frankly such detailed research and background work usually pays off in results.

So can they turn the odds of past teams - the victorious 1971 outfit excepted - and win the series?

About three months ago I was of the opinion that the All Blacks would win 3-0.

This was based on the great end-of-year All Blacks tour to Europe and after viewing a Six Nations where the traditional heavyweights of England and France were knocked over by the Irish and the cheeky Welsh.

Remember, we thought when the All Blacks had just beaten Wales last November that it was a bad day at the office.

In the last few months my opinion has changed to thinking that the series will be close. Very close.

Winning the first test will be vital to either side, maybe more to the All Blacks. We react badly to losses and the nation will look for scapegoats if things start badly.

If the Lions get up, their confidence may carry them through.

To be honest, it is crystal-ball gazing to predict a result this far out. It won't be until we get a closer look that we will get an idea what to expect.

One thing is for sure: this will be the biggest rugby event in New Zealand for more than a decade.

· John Drake is a former All Black prop and a Herald columnist.