The mysterious Maori drop-off

It is one of the great mysteries of New Zealand rugby: Why are so few Maori playing in an Auckland rugby landscape dominated by Pacific Island players?

Of the 19,000 registered players in Auckland, about 85 per cent are Pacific Islanders. But, while dwindling Pakeha participation rates in rugby aren't altogether new, officials suspect there's a more surprising twist - Maori numbers may also be dropping.

There are only about 2500 Pakeha and Maori players combined in Auckland. Research does not yet exist to show the exact numbers of Maori playing in Auckland or trends and patterns for Maori players. However, The New Zealand Rugby Union are concerned enough to be unveiling new measures next week to address rugby 'drop-out' rates.

Research has found that thousands of Pakeha children are being turned off rugby for fear of being injured by Polynesian boys who tend to mature younger. Thousands more are giving up rugby to take part-time jobs. But no one yet understands why the Maori drop-off is occurring.

The real worry is overall playing numbers. Auckland has the lowest proportional participation rate in New Zealand. If it matched Canterbury in percentage terms, there'd be close to 40,000 players.

Those struggling to work out why the Blues have lived so snugly in the Crusaders' pocket should consider this ethnic imbalance a major part of the problem.

The NZRU does. Next week community rugby manager Brent Anderson will present his ideas on addressing this alarming drop-out rate to the national board.

One of the proposals is to change Auckland's age-grade selection policy so teenagers are picked on potential, rather than who is the biggest and fastest. Auckland Rugby's operations manager Dave Syms said players with the most ability will be invited to join extended age-grade squads that focus on development.

Syms said: "There are outstanding Polynesian players. What we are saying is there are a lot of other people who are not filtering right through the system. Are they being knocked around by bigger, stronger people in their formative years and just saying: 'Bugger it, I'll go and do something else?'

"Polynesians are dominating age-grade selections because they are stronger and faster. If you look at secondary school first XVs, the majority would be dominated by Polynesians. In that mix we lose the Caucasians who decide not to play. Are they getting injuries or are they disenchanted they can't make it through the systems?"

In Auckland's 2004 30-man NPC squad, nine players - almost 30 per cent - were Pakeha, yet 90 per cent of Premier club players are Polynesian.

This disproportionately high number of Pakeha players suggests some Polynesian players are not necessarily developing their skills and are instead relying on natural athleticism. When they reach senior level, they're found out.

Former Auckland coach Wayne Pivac encountered this problem when he had charge of the side between 1999 and 2003: "We had to teach people basics, such as how to step and run instead of smashing into people," said Pivac.

"An example would be Sione Tongauiha. He came out of St Peters a superstar. He had bad body position. He didn't have a lot of ball control going into the tackle and he'd turn over ball. At age-grade rugby he had the ability to run over people.

"But we played Otago and he was being driven back five to 10 metres by Carl Hoeft and Carl Hayman, purely through good body position and technique.

"I think there is a lot of reliance on size from what I saw in Auckland club rugby and at the higher level a lot of the players weren't getting away with it.

"We had a style we wanted to play and picked certain players who had positional attributes. In our side we probably had 75 per cent Europeans in the forwards and 95 per cent Polynesians in the backline. We just picked the players we thought were right.

"We picked Daniel Braid because of his understanding of the tackled ball laws, the lines he ran and his ability to handle pressure. He had those qualities ahead of a guy like Finau Maka, who had raw strength but lacked in other areas. I was concerned at the Polynesians playing senior club rugby compared to Europeans. The drop-off was alarming."

Not as alarming as the drop-off rate in Maori, which remains more of a mystery. Former All Black Dallas Seymour, who works for Sparc as a senior adviser, believes more research is needed.

He does offer some theories, however. He said: "A lot of Maori are saying they want to be coached in Maori, by people who recognise our culture for what it is.

"We are trying to get organisers and providers to understand where Maori are coming from. We need to work out how we address Maori needs in sport."

The Lions arrive next week and a decision on a revamped NPC is also likely. But it's Anderson's plans that could have more impact on shaping the future of New Zealand rugby.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY