It’s an intriguing mix of clash and dash that has been spliced together, and on a PowerPoint presentation level it makes sense – the pack is loaded with test veterans and athletes who can produce the requisite grunt work at set piece and collision to ensure there is a stream of possession for a backline that is dripping in X-factor.
This formula has undoubted theoretical merit and certainly, after a few wobbly years in 2021 and 2022 when the All Blacks’ pack was built for Super Rugby, there’s something reassuring about seeing the names Tyrel Lomax, Ethan de Groot, Scott Barrett, Samipeni Finau and Ardie Savea on the team sheet.
These are men – as are Codie Taylor, Patrick Tuipulotu and Dalton Papali’i – who inspire a high degree of confidence that the All Blacks are not going to be taking a knife to a gunfight.
England can be sure they will be facing an All Blacks forward pack that is not only physically equipped for the modern demands of test rugby but is also mentally attuned to the attritional nature of it all and the need to adopt an unrelenting mindset that they are in a war of inches.
The adage has always been that if international teams win the battle of the trenches, then they set themselves to win the game, and under the roof in Dunedin there’s a possibility that a backline loaded with high-rollers such as Damian McKenzie, Mark Tele’a, Sevu Reece and Stephen Perofeta conjures all sorts of high jinks and trickery to leave England chasing shadows and gasping for air.
But there’s no escaping the fact that Robertson and his fellow selectors have picked a high-risk, high-reward back three and that there is an alternative scenario whereby England recognise the opportunity they have to expose the inexperience and lack of heavy-duty defensive weaponry in the All Blacks’ back-field.
Tele’a and Reece are excitement machines – uncannily brilliant at breaking tackles, wriggling free in impossible situations and sparking something from nothing.
Their Super Rugby Pacific form was exceptional, and while Perofeta missed much of the campaign through injury, he’s an equally gifted runner from the back field and just as capable of finding his way past the first wave of tacklers.
But the issue is whether they make sense as a combination – or at least, whether they have the right mix of skills to face an England team that, for all it is trying to build a more expansive repertoire, still believes strongly in defaulting to lower risk rugby to build pressure and will happily bombard the New Zealand back three with box kicks to keep them locked in defensive mode.
The All Blacks have picked a back three that will be deadly if they are given space to run, but it’s a unit that looks a touch vulnerable to a well-executed contestable kick strategy and cleverly orchestrated plays that leave Reece and Perofeta exposed to having to make one-on-one tackles against England’s most dynamic ball-carriers.
Reece is a deceptively strong tackler, but both he and Perofeta are relatively small men in the greater scheme of things and the decision to leave Beauden Barrett out of the starting XV may be one that comes back to haunt Robertson.
Barrett is not only brave and accurate under the high ball, but also a genuinely robust defender with a deep understanding of where a fullback needs to be positioned at this level.
He’s hugely experienced, calm and capable of directing his wings to precisely where they need to be, and he comes with the additional – and considerable – benefit of being able to slip into first receiver.
Robertson stated that he wanted experience and impact from his bench and that Perofeta was the form fullback, and while that all makes sense, starting with Barrett would give the back three a better defensive-offensive balance and a strong tactical operator to feed his thoughts into the decision-making and take some of the playmaking pressure off McKenzie, whose experience at No 10 in the test arena is limited.
But this is where the intrigue of appointing Robertson as All Blacks coach lies. He’s a visionary and innovator and he was put in play to bring something different.
His back three selection encapsulates how he may be seeing the international game through a different lens than his predecessors and that he’s ready to invest in building attacking systems and mindsets that have not been seen at this level before.
The defensive risk he’s taking with his back three is obvious, but so too is the attacking reward, and he’s backing himself and his coaching team to ensure that they build a game plan that allows the latter to prevail.
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