Kieran Read can't be more than a 50:50 chance to feature against the French. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Kieran Read can't be more than a 50:50 chance to feature against the French. Photo / Brett Phibbs
There's an equation forming that has potential to shock New Zealand's rugby public in June and see the French cast once again as dastardly villains.
Scaremongering maybe, but if the French win at Eden Park on June 9 in the first test of the year, it won't be the shock horror moment many currently imagine it would be.
And that's because we are on track to see the unweclome mix a high number of senior All Blacks lacking game time, meeting a surprisingly motivated, confident and gifted French team in a three test series.
It's not a comforting scenario and those who have blithely dismissed the June series as a foregone conclusion on the basis that the French will be frazzled from too much rugby, not particularly interested in the outcome and not actually being any good, are in for a rude awakening.
The potential for this series to go wrong for the All Blacks is high. Look around the country at the moment and see who is not playing and chart how things might look by June 9.
Neither Joe Moody nor Owen Franks – the two best props in New Zealand - have played since the middle of last year.
They are expected to be back in action by April 21 – which is probable rather than guaranteed – and best case is that both will come into the series with six Super Rugby games behind them.
Six games in 12 months is not a lot of rugby for big men. Nowhere near it. Kane Hames, the man who stepped in at loosehead for Moody last year, hasn't played in 2018 yet and no one knows, given he's dealing with concussion symptoms, when or if he might be back.
Even if he does surprise everyone and make it back to the field before June, he's not going to have enough rugby behind him to be considered.
Then there is Nepo Laulala – currently recovering from a broken arm and expected back in mid-May after eight weeks of not playing.
The All Blacks back their conditioning and their athletes to dig out all they have, but it is a concern that four of the best props in the country are not currently playing and senior statesman Wyatt Crockett has announced his retirement.
The French, even at their lowest points, have always been able to scrum. They have always been able to use their set-piece as a weapon and they are arguably the one team in world rugby that no one wants to face with an injury crises at prop.
The All Blacks' injury woes don't stop there, though. Liam Squire is nursing a broken thumb that will see him return in early May after a six week rehabilitation.
Sonny Bill Williams is on track for a late May playing return after breaking his wrist and Israel Dagg hasn't played yet in 2018 after knee surgery last year.
Sonny Bill Williams is still recovering from a broken wrist. Photo / Photosport
The biggest concern of all, of course, is the possibility of being without skipper Kieran Read who is progressing after major back surgery but can't be more than a 50:50 chance to feature against the French.
The All Blacks are notoriously vulnerable in their first test of the year, coming together on limited preparation time and with a Super Rugby mindset.
The last thing they need is for the situation to be compounded by having half the team short of football and still trying to find their form.
Especially against the French, who have the distinction of being not only the last team to win an opening season encounter against the All Blacks in 2009, but also the last team to win at Eden Park.
All of which means the danger factor presented by the French is surprisingly high.
They are the most prolific offloading team in world rugby. They tightened their defence in the Six Nations and while they only won two games, they lost to Wales by a point and Ireland only scraped past them with a dropped goal four minutes after the final whistle.
What will have particularly encouraged the French is that they went through the campaign without a host of senior players who are likely to come back into the squad that travels to New Zealand bringing experience and fresh legs.
It has been years since the French could legitimately be called unpredictable in the sense they had the potential to transform from bumbling to brilliant.
This current team aren't unpredictable at all, everyone should be able to see that they will play controlled, effective rugby with just enough flair and creativity to be a healthy outside chance of winning the series.
