Everyone expects the All Blacks to unleash pent-up frustrations on Italy in their final test of the season in Rome. The scoreline is largely irrelevant, though. This test is important to rebuild self-confidence and fix key areas of their game previously exposed on this northern tour.
This week, performance is far more significant than delivering a dominant victory.
Here's what we need to see:
Better decision making under pressure:
Italy will bring more defensive line speed than anyone the All Blacks have faced this year. And right now, that's exactly what they need. Variations of this defensive style – Ireland adopted a more umbrella version which involves pushing up and out – continues to cause the All Blacks problems. By tweaking their attack in attempts to get the ball to space, the All Blacks are confident the tries will come. They changed up training this week to put key decision makers under the same form of game-style pressure, challenging them to pick the right options with someone in their face. Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie, the two starting drivers, will be expected to step up and deliver solutions.
Much has been made of the All Blacks' defensive issues this year, given the 30 tries conceded is the most in a calendar season. A lot of this can be attributed to wayward kicks. While Ireland converted a quality set piece move last week, the All Blacks have been burnt more in unstructured play than anywhere else. This often arises from poor kicks and fractured chase lines. The accuracy of box kicking is a major focus to allow more chance to contest or win the ball back. Retaining the ball is the other, obvious, option.
For the first time in recent memory, the All Blacks were surprisingly wobbly in both aspects of their set piece last week. Irish tighthead Tadhg Furlong applied huge pressure in the first half, and at the backend of the second the lineout failed to fire. The Italians take great pride from their scrum and with a new front-row and locking combination, the All Blacks need to restore dominance. Quicker ruck ball is high on the agenda, as is dominating in the tackle. The pack could also be far more direct – go through the guts often before unleashing the backline threats.
Clinical execution:
Usually experts at nailing opportunities they create, the All Blacks botched four try-scoring chances last week. Credit must be paid to Ireland's brilliant scrambling defence but, even so, the All Blacks lacked patience and seemed to panic at times. Italy are, clearly, not Ireland. But confidence can be restored somewhat by regaining clutch finishing.
Impact off the bench:
So often the All Blacks steam home over the top of teams in the final quarter through the strength of their bench and supreme fitness. That hasn't happened the last two weeks. At Twickenham, especially, England finished much stronger. At the end of another long, taxing season, fatigue is a genuine factor but those injected for the final half hour or so must provide impact and influence. Taranaki and Chiefs halfback Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi has made a big impression in this regard already, his speed and creative abilities sparking those around him. Look for him to repeat these efforts and cut the Italians open around the fringes. The bench is stacked this week with Brodie Retallick, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Dalton Papalii, Richie Mo'unga and Rieko Ioane, covering midfield, all awaiting the call.
Who has the most to gain?
This is a big test for Ngani Laumape, Waisake Naholo, Jordie Barrett and Vaea Fifita; the quartet having all been forced to wait. Patrick Tuipulotu is another, barely mentioned, who needs to take a major step forward. Off the field such a gentle giant, Tuipulotu will be asked to impose his size in every aspect. With Jackson Hemopo waiting in the wings and the balance of the World Cup loose forwards/locks up for discussion, Tuipulotu must prove his worth now or risks missing the cut.