KEY POINTS:
If unpredictable isn't the word to describe this year's Tri-Nations tournament, give me a better one.
We all know what's going to happen last week, but anyone with fearless predictions about what might occur next week is not really fearless. They're just pretending.
As Robbie Deans said to the assembled throng at the announcement of the Wallaby team during the week, "If you know what's going to happen on Saturday, please let me know. I'd be mighty interested." Or words to that effect.
So having admitted I've got no clue as to who might win tonight or why, I'll throw up one reason why the All Blacks deserve favouritism.
Selection consistency.
There it is. Forget about the deep and meaningfuls of commitment, pride in the jersey, and mental toughness, or the technical claptrap regarding scrums and lineouts.
Know-alls on both sides of the Tasman keep rabbiting on about this stuff before every test match only for us to be proved wrong more often than we ever care to admit.
There are hundreds of contests of every kind during any game of rugby and if you win most of them, the scoreboard generally looks kindly on you. But not one of the three teams this year has been able to nail the majority of contests in every game, so none have been consistent winners.
If we judge performances purely on winning or losing, (which we shouldn't, but we do), nobody has had three good games on the trot. The All Blacks have gone good, bad, bad, good, good, the Springboks, bad , good, bad, bad, bad, good and the Wallabies, good, good, bad, good, very bad. By that marking system, South Africa have been the most consistent side with three losses on the trot. And they flogged tonight's title contender by 45 points a fortnight ago. Go figure.
So who knows if Brad Thorn and Ali Williams are going to dust up Nathan Sharpe and James Horwill, or if Stirling Mortlock and Ryan Cross will run rings around Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith. I imagine it will depend on what mood they're in.
To that end, it's easier to be in a positive mood when you're used to the personnel around you. It's all very well to train a lot together, as is the case nowadays, but it's the chemistry in the heat of battle which matters.
The All Blacks have the same starting fifteen for the third match in succession. The Wallabies had five changes to their lineup between Auckland and Durban, five between Durban and Ellis Park and five yet again from Johannesburg to Brisbane. That's a fair bit of fiddling.
A glance at the benches also makes Australian fans nervous. Deans says he has a plan as to who'll replace Matt Giteau should our number 10 and most influential player be injured. He might have a plan B, but plan A must be to pray very hard Giteau doesn't get injured.
Those scenarios, coupled with the get-what-you-least-expect aspect of this year's Tri-Nations, and it looks like the Wallabies by 20.
- Andrew Slack is a former Wallaby
