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As a general principle international coaches default to selecting experience ahead of youth.
They typically value old heads ahead of young legs, particularly in New Zealand and that's why the All Blacks tend to have a different age and experience profile compared with Super Rugby sides.
But every few years the All Blacks are confronted with a specific selection that challenges their preference to err on the side of experience.
Sometimes a young player, picked as a longer term project, takes their chance with such conviction that they change the establishment's thinking.
The fearlessness of youth and its unknown potential start to tempt the selectors more than the certainty and steadiness of the established player.
What they might get becomes more attractive than what they know they are getting and there comes a point when the balance tips in favour of the younger man.
This is maybe where things are poised in regard to the battle between Jack Goodhue and Ryan Crotty.
Goodhue, in just five tests, has set the imagination alight, mostly with what he's done but partly with the promise of how much more he could deliver if he's given the chance.
And as much as the selectors are picking a team to play the Boks in Pretoria this weekend, they are also picking with the World Cup in mind and might the All Blacks coaches have assessed from what they have seen from Goodhue so far that he is on track to surpass Crotty by this time next year?
Have they, therefore, surmised that it would be best to commit to Goodhue now, select him regularly through to the World Cup to fast-track his experience?
Having chosen to start Goodhue at centre this weekend in Pretoria - a test that ranks as one of the hardest and most intense before the World Cup - the All Blacks have, if nothing else, signalled the enormous faith in which they hold the 23-year-old.
Jack Goodhue has pole position in the All Blacks midfield battle. Photo / Photosport
More likely, what they have revealed, is that Goodhue is now viewed as their first choice No 13. This is a must-win game - not the time for whims, or fanciful, experimental selections.
That doesn't necessarily mean the situation is permanent. It doesn't automatically mean the door has been shut on the consistently excellent Crotty or that he's now destined to be confined to a bench role other than when injury strikes or the opposition aren't top drawer.
But it does in all likelihood mean that in the race for that starting role, he's now running into a headwind.
History has shown that in previous, similar selection battles, once the younger man gets in front, their momentum takes them all the way to the World Cup.
This happened in 2011 when the 23-year-old Israel Dagg was so full of running, energy and magical touches that the coaching panel had to pick him at fullback ahead of the long-serving incumbent Mils Muliaina.
It was a change everyone knew was coming as the veteran Muliaina was heading to Japan after the World Cup. But what no one predicted was that the transition would come before the World Cup.
Muliaina was shortlisted as a World Rugby Player of the Year in 2010 and yet by August the following year, it would have been madness to have denied Dagg time on the biggest stage.
It was the same with Nehe Milner-Skudder in 2015. He made his test debut in July, played again in the return Bledisloe fixture and did enough to sneak past the vastly experienced Cory Jane.
Liam Squire is another to have been backed on the youthful exuberance ticket. When he came into the All Blacks squad in 2016, most seasoned observers predicted that at some point in 2018, maybe late 2017, he'd be close to tipping the balance at blindside with Jerome Kaino.
But Squire, like Goodhue, surpassed all expectations in his early tests and he was ahead of Kaino by August 2017 and has been ensconced in the All Blacks No 6 jersey since.
Injury will no doubt cause this tale to twist in some unforeseen direction, but as things stand right now, Goodhue has the inside running.
