Rugby: England face skills chasm

Danny Cipriani has failed to deliver. Photo / Getty Images

There has been a chasm between the All Blacks and England in terms of results and performance since 2004, yet the gap between their respective self-confidence levels has been remarkably tight.

England have been the masters of self-delusion since they won the World Cup in 2003. There are high expectations and the various coaches who have been at the helm these past seven years have all felt the need to make promises the team have not been able to keep.

The latest in this vein was made by Martin Johnson. The former World Cup captain who has been coaching England since late 2008, was impressed by the recent fitness results of his squad.

A year ago, when the game was all about kick-and-chase, this wouldn't have been such a big deal, but clearly it is now. The All Blacks have made test rugby as much, if not more, an aerobic challenge than a physical one.

Conditioning has become a massive factor, as witnessed in Soweto and Sydney where the All Blacks won late. The Boks and Wallabies can go for 70 minutes, 75 at a push - the All Blacks can do 80-plus.

England, after defeating the Wallabies in June, are confident they have done the hard work and can compete with the southern hemisphere in basic fitness.

"The guys came in recently and were [fitness] tested and the results were the best since I've been here," says Johnson. "Some of the guys had world-class statistics a year ago but others who weren't quite there have improved.

"Last summer I thought we could improve our fitness in certain areas. It wasn't unsatisfactory a year ago, but it's definitely better now and it needs to be. You hear a lot from around the clubs that guys are in good shape and working harder. Fitness-wise we are up there now, but the key thing is what the score is when we play teams like New Zealand."

The reason for being sceptical is not so much the exaggerated claims and mistakes made by previous England coaches. It was pressure, desperation almost, that led to Andy Robinson selecting the 19-year-old Anthony Allen to play against the All Blacks in 2006. Supposedly Allen was going to be the saviour of England's midfield but when Dan Carter brushed him off all too easily on his way to a marvellous solo try, Allen was never seen again.

Danny Cipriani is another failed promise, while James Haskell and Tom Croft are loose forwards with promise but have not yet lived up to their billing.

What creates doubt around England, and the northern hemisphere in general (with France a possible exception), is they tend to be 6-12 months behind the global benchmark.

This current England squad may indeed be the fittest Johnson has ever seen, but the claim they have reached world-class levels could be out of date. The All Blacks have probably moved the bar significantly higher on that front and what may have been world class last year could be some way behind now. England are probably fit, but fit enough to beat the All Blacks? Unlikely.

The other concern buried under the northern hemisphere's optimism and excitement about rugby's new direction is the failure to realise the amount of ground they need to make up.

Former Scotland and Lions coach Ian McGeechan, now director of rugby at Bath, made some astute observations last week.

"It will no longer be about impact for impact's sake. It will be about a dynamic impact to produce a dynamic game. I think we'll see a more aerobic game. The more skilful a team is, the more pressure you can put on opponents.

"You want competence at the set-piece but the real bonuses are in other parts of the game. The figures show there are a third more rucks and phases under the current interpretations, so players have to have confidence to be involved in that type of game.

"The momentum is with the southern hemisphere countries because the Tri Nations is the last tournament before the autumn. But I'd be very surprised if we don't see the home nations looking at increasing ball-in-play time and counter-attacking. I'm excited about what we might see in November."

The sentiment is all good; the fact there is positive talk about embracing a ball-in-hand game and attacking rugby is encouraging. The global game needs more converts to the style of rugby that has been prevalent in the Tri Nations even just for a year - to win back an audience in danger of dying from terminal boredom.

Yet the All Blacks didn't just press a magic button this year and suddenly play this high-tempo, extremely accurate, relentless game. The basic skills of pass, catch and run are ingrained at all levels in New Zealand, as they are in Australia and even, to a lesser extent, South Africa.

This is a style of game with which players here have years of familiarity. The northern hemisphere, on the other hand, has been less wedded to expansive football. That's not to say they can't play it or are not genuine in their desire to do so. But they haven't got that same grounding; that same instinctive desire to run from deep and keep the ball alive. Even the Welsh, who have consistently played with width at pace, have a skills gap to close.

There is another six weeks of club action in Europe before the southern hemisphere invasion. That's precision time to build more confidence and gain more experience in playing attacking rugby.

It's probably nowhere enough, however, for any of the home unions to be thinking they can beat the All Blacks in November.