The Breakdown team discuss where former All Black Dan Carter could play when rugby returns
The rugby world's best and worst goalkickers can now be analysed through in-depth analysis, with the Herald digging through a decade's worth of data - and a whopping 233 goalkickers - to see where the top New Zealanders rank.
A New Zealand first-five is the best goalkicker in the world,according to data from the last decade.
Hayden Parker comes out on top of the 233 players to have taken at least 50 attempts at goal in major competitions since 2011, with the goalkickers.co.za website having tracked every shot at goal in the world's biggest leagues.
Their calculations are more sophisticated than just pure goalkicking percentages.
While Parker's percentage is impressive – kicking 117 out of 132 attempts for a 88.6 per cent clip – the goalkickers website takes into account a multitude of factors – the most important being the distance and angle of the kick, but also altitude, score difference, pressure and the venue.
It then compares a kicker's performance to its entire database to determine whether the kicker adds or detracts value – if he contributes more points than the average kicker would be expected to, given the difficulty of his attempts at goal.
For example, England utility Elliot Daly ranks fifth, despite only hitting 58.8 per cent of his attempts at goal, because he almost exclusively only takes long-range, difficult attempts. Daly's average difficulty rating of 8.05 (out of 10) is streets ahead of the second-ranked Francois Steyn's 6.13 – and therefore when he does nail a booming long-range penalty, it adds more value than a kicker who pads their percentage by slotting penalties and conversions from in front of the posts.
Parker's strength is his accuracy from all over the field, which sees him rank atop the website's "Value Added" charts, with Parker deemed to be worth an extra 32 points per 100 attempts than an average goalkicker.
The Oamaru-born first-five first proved his worth for Otago and the Highlanders, before moving to the Sunwolves, where his kicking game really shone. In 2018, Parker kicked 38 consecutive goals for the Sunwolves, and after a rare missed attempt, he went on another run of goals – this time knocking over 33 straight.
Hayden Parker kicking goals for the Sunwolves. This one was probably successful. Photo / Photosport
It led to calls from him to be considered as a potential third first-five option for the All Blacks at the World Cup, and while that didn't happen, he did continue with the Kobelco Steelers in Japan's top league, until play was suspended due to the coronavirus.
Parker is not the only Kiwi whose kicking rates highly, with former Northland utility Lachie Munro ranking second, though only just making the 50 attempt cut-off, making 41 of his shots at goal, while South Africa's George Whitehead, Wales' Nick Robinson and Daly round out the top five.
Of notable current and former All Blacks, Dan Carter's strong 498-kick sample sees him rank 29th, with a "value added" score of +11, while Lima Sopoaga (52nd) and Jordie Barrett (61st) also come in above average.
However, in a potential concern for new All Blacks coach Ian Foster, Damian McKenzie (111th, -2 value added), Beauden Barrett (140th, -5), and Richie Mo'unga (157th, -7) all rate below average.
Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo'unga kicking goals for the All Blacks. Photos / Photosport
And, if Super Rugby ever resumes, Blues fans might have reason to be concerned about their kicking options, with Otere Black (95th) stable, but Barrett, Harry Plummer (226th) and Stephen Perofeta (229th) failing to flatter.
How the New Zealand goalkickers rate
1st - Hayden Parker (88.6 per cent, +32 value added per 100 attempts)
