Rugby: Blackadder will be ABs coach but not quite yet

Todd Blackadder is the undoubted people's favourite for the All Blacks hotseat. Photo / Getty Images

It's a matter of when, not if, Todd Blackadder will be All Blacks coach - but 2013 is likely to be the earliest he'll have a crack.

The undoubted people's favourite has conducted himself with the quiet dignity and poise he maintained when All Black captain.

Thrown the near-impossible task of following Robbie Deans into the Crusaders coaching job, Blackadder has consolidated and even enhanced Super Rugby's greatest team.

They are unquestionably his side now - tough up front, inventive out wide and, if anything, more entrenched in the community than they were under Deans. With the All Black job to be opened to tender after the World Cup, Blackadder could be swept into the post by public opinion.

But it would be a surprise if he even applies.

He's a legacy builder and happy to bide his time. He wants to win titles with the Crusaders and establish the Blackadder era. He's only 39 and is smart enough to see there is no rush.

Henry took his first international job at 52 and has been improving ever since. When he looks back on his career, he'll argue that he was at his peak between the ages of 55 and 65.

Look around and see what fate awaits those coaches who land the international post of their dreams early in their careers. Jake White in South Africa has spent four years being linked to every job in the world without actually landing one until he agreed to coach the Brumbies next year.

John Mitchell hardly went onwards and upwards after he was dumped by the All Blacks in 2003. Waikato, Western Force and Lions are hardly the cream of Southern Hemisphere rugby.

A coaching career needs a foundation - an indisputable period of sustained success. It is all about having something concrete and memorable to offset the inevitable failures. If Blackadder were to apply and win the All Black job later this year, what would he really have on his CV?

A couple of years with Edinburgh, where he was hugely respected but didn't win anything, or get close to winning anything. Some time with Tasman, another struggler, and then two semifinals with the Crusaders and a magical campaign in 2011. It's easy to see why he wants to do more with a team that continues to evolve and spellbind.

There is also one other key factor that the smarter coaches will consider. The All Blacks have won 19 of their last 20 tests and it is possible, who knows, that they end 2011 with a big fat World Cup in their lap.

Even if they don't, following Henry into the job will be tough. Under him the All Blacks have won 88 per cent of their tests. They have won five Tri Nations, three Grand Slams and a series against the Lions.

If a World Cup is added to that collection, then the benchmark will sit at a ludicrously high level and (with the exception of 1996) historically the All Blacks have struggled in the year after a World Cup.

Richie McCaw and Dan Carter will be here and the Franks brothers, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith are all hanging around to provide experience and class. Yet it would be a brave call to suggest the All Blacks of 2012 have the same potential as the current squad.

The break-up of the current coaching trio will have a massive impact; so too will the respective losses of Brad Thorn and Mils Muliaina.

The All Blacks don't do massive fluctuations in form - a bad year is only winning 75 per cent of their tests. But when the winning ratio has been up and around the high 80s, it will feel almost catastrophic if it drops to 80 per cent.

Blackadder can see that now is not the time. Steve Hansen can have the job and probably, even if Blackadder did apply later this year, the current assistant would have trump cards.

As Hansen told New Zealand Rugby World magazine when he revealed he wants the job: "If we win the World Cup, it makes the opportunity to coach the All Blacks a little bit easier. But it is not guaranteed because there is a process. Again, not winning it makes it harder - but that doesn't mean to say you can't do it, because there is a process.

"There will be set criteria and one of those things is going to be experience - and I have been in the international arena for the last 10 years so my experience will be very good.

"Success will be another factor and our success record has been very good. They are the key ingredients and it will be up to the board to decide who the best person for the job is. I don't think public opinion really comes into the decision-making process and, if it does, then the people making the decisions are not electing the person on the right basis."

Blackadder, like many others, can validly question whether a panel of Hansen, Ian Foster and Mick Byrne will deliver in the same way as the Henry-Hansen-Wayne Smith triumvirate. He can also ponder whether they will win unanimous public support, given Hansen's revelations he needed to improve his public image and Foster's mixed time at the Chiefs.

Henry never had to contend with challenges at the mid-point of the World Cup cycle - his contract was extended without fuss in both 2005 and 2009.

That certainty of position might not be won by Hansen in 2013. There could be a mood for change by then with Blackadder proving irresistible.

If not, then his time will be the 2015 World Cup.