KEY POINTS:
During the first four years of the Graham Henry reign, there was never any sense of screamingly obvious test candidates failing to make the All Black squad.
There was debate about whether Henry assembled the best starting XV for any given test; very little about whether he got
the make-up of his squad right.
There were the occasional poor choices, particularly at prop where Campbell Johnstone and John Schwalger were not much chop and Isaia Toeava was elevated beyond his skills and experience.
But getting the squad right next Sunday will be tougher than it has been in recent years. The exodus at the end of last year has created holes that will be tricky to fill.
There are several younger players who have advanced during the Super 14, probably not enough to make the squad now, but certainly they will be in line to tour at the end of the year when there is more likely to be a secondary, development focus.
The immediate goal for Henry is to restore credibility with solid victories, achieved on the back of good rugby. That is the sole focus for the next few months and will shape the make-up of the 26-man squad announced after the Super 14 final.
Where in the past there was a plan to build depth, now there is only a desire to live in the present. That means those players who have signed to play overseas, or are close to signing, will be considered.
Or put it this way - Nick Evans, who will join Harlequins later this year, will not be left out on the basis it would be sensible to blood Stephen Donald now.
The choice will come down to which player has more to offer and that, presumably, is still Evans.
Donald had a slow start to this Super 14 season, came into some great form in the middle of the campaign and then faded again. He's talented but erratic and can't match Evans in the length of his tactical kicking or accuracy of goal kicking.
And in test rugby, experience is everything, which is why there is a core group of players who have been around for a while and whose inclusion is not up for debate.
It doesn't matter the form of some of these players has been patchy - you don't discard a bloke in his prime who has almost 50 caps.
That's why Jerry Collins will be in the squad. Yes, he wasn't at his best during the early rounds but Collins is a class act.
Is there a better tackler in New Zealand? Can anyone intimidate opponents in the same way?
Experience and proven ability will also see Mils Muliaina included. He's been quiet with the Chiefs but, like Collins, he's been there, done that.
To that list of certainties can be added Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Greg Somerville, Ali Williams, Richie McCaw, Rodney So'oialo, Dan Carter, Leon Mac-Donald and Sitiveni Sivivatu.
Who joins them depends on how the selectors want to split their resources. A 26-man squad will most likely see a 14 forwards/12 backs split, with the former probably broken into four props, two hookers, three locks and five loose forwards.
John Afoa has been consistent with the Blues and his combination with Mealamu and Woodcock should see him recalled, with the fourth berth open.
Neemia Tialata hasn't played well and it is maybe too early for Jamie Mackintosh to be called up. Wyatt Crockett has been a strong performer off the bench for the Crusaders and has the bulk and technique to cope.
Andrew Hore has done enough to edge past Corey Flynn as the other hooker and Brad Thorn is presumably going to be named at lock having recently signed an extended contract.
Jason Eaton has been groomed as the long-term successor to Chris Jack but he's another who is seemingly short of form and confidence. Would it be best to leave him in the Air New Zealand Cup where he will play regularly or to bring him into the fold where the coaches can work on him at training?
If they decide the former, then they need a third lock and the two men most advanced are Anthony Boric and Tom Donnelly. Again the end of year tour is probably a more likely target for those two, especially Boric, who played superbly in the last four games for the Blues.
Chris Masoe should retain his place, leaving the fifth spot depen-dent on what sort of balance the coaches want to strike. If they want an explosive, ball-carrying option, then Sione Lauaki and Mose Tuiali'i will be in their thoughts.
If they want a rangy, lineout option, then Read and Jerome Kaino come into the equation. Or, if they are serious about using McCaw on the blindside at times, then they might think about Daniel Braid.
At halfback it seems fairly straighforward - Brendon Leonard and Andy Ellis, with Carter and Evans at first five.
Ma'a Nonu has been one of the big improvers this season. His distribution, decision-making and defence are all more accurate. He looks fitter, a little faster and the physicality of test rugby is such that the All Blacks can't afford to be without a 100kg presence somewhere in the midfield.
Stephen Brett looks a long-term All Black and there will be a desire to slowly phase him into the team in the same way Luke McAlister was given time to find his feet.
That would leave Conrad Smith, Anthony Tuitavake and Casey Laulala fighting for one spot. Richard Kahui might have headed that queue if his season hadn't been again blighted by injury. Smith is the most experienced of the trio but has the least form. Laulala is strong, imposing and direct but it is Tuitavake who has offered the most.
The Blues centre-cum-wing is deceptively powerful and can, at a push, play wing, which will be handy given the paucity of options there.
Sivivatu will probably start all three of the first tests, with Rudi Wulf and Lelia Masaga exciting options on the other flank.
With Muliaina capable of covering wing and also Nonu and Tuitavake, there is likely to be room for only one of Wulf or Masaga and the former has greater defensive presence.
Possible 26-man squad: Tony Woodcock, Wyatt Crockett, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, John Afoa, Greg Somerville, Ali Williams, Brad Thorn, Jason Eaton, Jerry Collins, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Chris Masoe, Rodney So'oialo, Brendon Leonard, Andy Ellis, Dan Carter, Nick Evans, Stephen Brett, Ma'a Nonu, Anthony Tuitavake, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Rudi Wulf, Lelia Masaga, Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald.
