Rugby: All Blacks captain Kieran Read could be ruled out of French series

The All Blacks are plotting a cautious and conservative route back to the playing field for captain Kieran Read after he had major back surgery in December and are prepared to be without him for the June series against France.

Read hasn't been ruled out of the three test series but the injury he suffered - a bulging disc in his back that was squeezing a nerve - carries a high chance of recurring and the All Blacks don't want to risk their skipper coming back too soon, aggravating his back and missing most of a huge year for the national team.

He was forced to miss the last test of 2017 because of the troublesome disc and had surgery in mid-December, with medics suggesting he was looking at a recovery time of four to six months.

It is, however, a notoriously challenging injury to estimate recovery times, as nerve damage is difficult to accurately assess. Read's surgery went well, he's back on his feet, capable of doing light workouts and is generally progressing as hoped.

But the next stage is to increase his training load - to build up to full pace running and being able to endure contact again.

This is the grey area for everyone, as there is no way of knowing how Read's body will respond as he increases his activity.

There is no way of truly knowing how extensive the nerve damage has been or how quickly Read can rebuild his power after significant muscle atrophy in his lower leg.

What the medics do know, though, is that they don't want to see that process rushed, as it increases the chances of a recurrence and that's why no one wants to provide a definite date for Read's return to action.

"The issue with nerve damage is that you can't put an exact timeline on the recovery," says All Blacks coach Steve Hansen. "The medics have said it could take between four to six months, and there is a lot of time between four and six, so there is no point in panicking.

"Tiger Woods had a similar injury and he came back too soon. So we just have to be patient, as does Kieran, and take the advice of the medical team and keep working on his recovery. There has to be a long-term focus because there is a lot of rugby ahead.

"You don't want him to come back too soon and he injures himself, so we will let the experts make the decision when they think it is all go, and Kieran will listen to his body and what it is telling him.

"If he doesn't play in Super Rugby or in the June series, so be it."

Hansen, since he took the head coaching job in 2012, has adopted a philosophical attitude towards injuries, even when they have been to key players. One man's misfortune is another's opportunity has always been the thinking and while Hansen wants his captain fit and available to play France, Read's possible absence would provide an opportunity to develop a second specialist No 8.

When Read missed the test against Wales last year, it highlighted the lack of depth at No 8. While several quality loose forwards have dabbled in the role - Liam Squire, Sam Cane and Ardie Savea - there is no obvious specialist deputy to Read.

Luke Whitelock stepped up in Cardiff and will no doubt be in the frame again should Read be ruled out, and Akira Ioane and Jordan Taufua will also be heavily scrutinised in the next month or so.

Again, if the All Blacks don't have Read at the helm in June, it will be viewed as an opportunity to build the captaincy skills of Sam Cane or Sam Whitelock. The latter took over the captaincy in Cardiff last year but Cane is viewed as the long-term successor and heir apparent to Read.

If Read is ruled out, it would be a curious twist of fate. Read established his credentials as previous captain Richie McCaw's heir apparent the last time the French played a series in New Zealand. McCaw was on sabbatical for the first half of 2013 and Read led the team in June that year.