Paul Lewis: The All Black who could be the surprise answer at No 10

OPINION:

If there's cause for concern in the selection of the 35-strong All Blacks squad for this momentous tour – 10 away tests in 12 weeks – it's at first five and the rather large hole where Richie Mo'unga used to be.

What happens if Beauden Barrett is injured? Most assume Damian McKenzie will back up Barrett at 10 even though he is primarily a fullback, not yet totally convincing at first five-eighth. He's played there often in his 32 tests, but usually as a sub late in the game. He's started at 10 once in his 32 tests, scoring two tries in a 49-14 win over France back in 2018.

There is another option: David Havili, and this is just the sort of tour where he could shine. Havili has less experience than McKenzie at first five but he has played there for the Crusaders – once in a defeat to the Chiefs last year; though Havili played well, setting up two tries to Sevu Reece. His ability at 10 means the Crusaders have often been able to stack their bench with players other than back-up first fives like Brett Cameron or Fergus Burke.

Before injury, Havili was the best Super Rugby Aotearoa fullback last year – and has impressed in the All Black midfield this year (four tries in four tests) where he made no one miss Anton Lienert-Brown, Jack Goodhue or Ngani Laumape. Lienert-Brown is in the midfield with Havili for the Perth test but, on this exacting tour, there are players such as Rieko Ioane, Braydon Ennor and newcomer Quinn Tupaea to fit in midfield as well.

At about 90kg, Havili plays like a bigger man but it's his twisting runs, clever offloads and slip passes which have caught the eye. His kicking from hand and more than useful goalkicking are assets – as is the calm temperament so needed at top level.

David Havili looms as a more than credible backup at first five eight for the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport

Barrett needs extended game time at 10 to pull his form up but don't be surprised to see Havili at or covering 10 – one of many accommodations the All Blacks may have to make on this tour.

One of my favourite memories of an All Black accommodating a situation on tour was at one of those official events the team is obliged to attend. Andy Earl, the Canterbury farmer with the hair that always looked like it had tangled with an egg-beater (his nickname was Wurzel, after the TV scarecrow character Wurzel Gummidge), was unhappy in his dress clothes.

It was hot; he wanted to take off his All Black blazer. Permission refused, he was about as happy as a farmer with a ute tax bill. Next time I looked at him, he'd rolled up the sleeves of his blazer while still wearing it, shirt sleeves sticking out. If you're in any doubt about how hard that is, try it.

That's the All Blacks – they generally find a way. They'll have to find a way on this tour too. Tests against Australia, Argentina (twice), South Africa (twice), USA, Wales, Italy, Ireland and France is daunting, particularly for a rugby nation that likes to win everything, peopled by critics who get salty when it doesn't.

Ian Foster's ability to balance his squad over a long tour will be surely tested. Photo / Photosport

I once had a long chat with the great Colin Meads about being on the selection committee for the 1970 tour of South Africa (as a player) and how, over a three-month tour, he watched individuals' form peak and fall away. Meads' rueful concession was that he and the other selectors had probably overreacted to the dips – choosing too many players not quite of test match quality or not quite as good as those they replaced. The 2021 schedule and certainty of rotation mean this All Black side may face similar pressures, particularly as quarantine means replacements for injury or virus may not be simple.

Already they have to deal with the temporary absence and potential absence of leading players for reasons varying from babies (Mo'unga, Sam Whitelock and Aaron Smith) to injury and illness. Several players, some returning from injury, have had little game time lately – thanks to Covid-induced cancellation of provincial rugby. That includes Lienert-Brown and Ennor in the backs and Asafo Aumua, Ofa Tuungafasi and Joe Moody up front, with Dane Coles, Sam Cane and Goodhue also missing.

The long tour will help but the virus – and tough schedule – will mean a lot of down time in their bubble. Three months, make no mistake, will send them a bit stir-crazy; the attrition on this tour will not just come on the field.

But, even though it is forced on them because of Covid-19, this long tour will develop depth ahead of the 2023 World Cup in France and the long time together should enhance their ability to play instinctively together; that Zen zone where players subconsciously know what teammates will do with the ball.

It will be anything but easy. Most think the Springboks will be their toughest customers but Ireland and France play the final two tests, with plenty of time to analyse these tourists.