FILE - In this Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016 file photo, South Africa players line up before the start of the international rugby union test match against Italy in Florence, Italy. Photo / AP.
Here's a few things likely to happen before just about any New Zealander is persuaded to coach South Africa in the current rugby environment:
• John Key will rescind his resignation and re-enter politics wearing a ponytail.
• Facebook will become interesting.
• Russian athletes are pronounced clean by the new head of Wada, Lance Armstrong.
• Judith Collins will be elected PM and announce a change of government style, from touchy-feely to smashy-testes.
The thing is, you see, no one in their right mind would take on the Springboks as a coaching venture right now. It's all very flattering to have media folk in the republic calling for a Kiwi to head their flagging national game but Chiefs coach Dave Rennie and anyone else they might care to approach should run a mile.
Rennie was fingered as a prospect when, apparently, South African rugby wallahs tried to subvert his two-year move to the Glasgow Warriors. He is off contract with the Chiefs at the end of next season and, while he has made no secret of his international ambitions, he has also signalled they will probably be realised later rather than sooner.
But this week more media talk highlighted the increasingly desperate notion from within South Africa that a Kiwi - almost any Kiwi - was needed at the helm rather than incumbent coach Allister Coetzee who has presided over the worst season in Springbok history. They looked at the success of Warren Gatland, Joe Schmidt, Vern Cotter, and Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph signing up for Japan. The Hurricanes' John Plumtree and even the management-psychobabble-spouting John Mitchell, the Yoda of all Black rugby, were mentioned. What, no Jed Rowlands?
So why is coaching the Boks right now about the same as leaping off the Beehive roof while hoping to land on a passing Gerry Brownlee?
They suffered their first home defeat to Ireland, lost to Argentina and endured a particularly demeaning loss to a second-string Italy (who had never come within 16 points of beating them). Then there was that little matter of a record 57-15 hiding by the All Blacks in Durban and that historic loss to Japan in last year's World Cup.
There are three main problems. Coetzee is not the most compelling Bok coach of all time yet they have to change their antiquated, crash-ball, grunty-forwards, kick-goals game plan. In the last two years they have scored 55 tries in 23 tests. The All Blacks have scored 135, Argentina 93, England 87, Australia 85 and Ireland 73 in roughly the same number of matches. Even Scotland and Wales have scored more, admittedly in a few more tests; the Boks' ball-handling still looks like it's out of the ark.
Player exodus is also a factor. About 300 play overseas - most attracted by the big money and/or provoked by the third issue: transformation.
The South African sports ministry has had enough of waiting for evasive coaches to meet political goals of turning a whites-dominated sport into a racially equal one. Sports minister Fikile Mbalula has said he will force transformation, the goal being to have at least 50 per cent of the Boks squad non-white by 2019. So the path to a Bok jersey may be blocked, many players feel, because of skin colour. Ironic.
There is no way to discuss the issue of artificially promoting players without being accused of racism or being an establishment toady. The clear signal it sends to any potential coach is that he might not be able to select the players he wants - but the government can.
However, we better hope the South Africans sort this out; perhaps a Kiwi coach or a sort of Sir Graham Henry consultant at the head of a task force could be a good thing. Why?
Because if a wounded and needy South Africa (apparently the national rugby union purse is almost empty) decides its future lies in the northern hemisphere with its hefty financial muscle, the All Blacks could be left with Australia and Argentina as the only worthwhile southern hemisphere opponents - and that is not a financial nor a rugby future New Zealand Rugby will ever want to contemplate.
So, Sir Graham...what are you doing for the next two years?
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