Nine thoughts of a nervous All Blacks fan ahead of the Lions decider

Herald Travel Editor and passionate All Blacks fan Winston Aldworth shares his thoughts on tonight's All Blacks v Lions series decider:

1) THE COST OF LOSING
If the Lions lose, they still go home winners. They beat the All Blacks in Wellington and performed better in the non-test matches than anyone predicted. Their playing style has won the respect of Kiwis and Brits alike. And their fans are fantastic. So, whatever tonight's score, the Lions squad will return home to cheers and accolades. Whereas if the All Blacks lose, they will forever be marked as members of an All Blacks side that lost a key series. This is worth a slight edge in the desperation stakes for the home side.

ADVANTAGE: All Blacks

2) THE KIWI PUBLIC
When the ABs lost the second test in 1993, the country turned against the team. The nation was bitter. We were an angry, rattled people. "I probably remember more of the next five days than the game," Fitzpatrick said. "The whole country was against us." This time round, there's not been quite the vitriol. The week was marked by a victory parade for the America's Cup sailors. People have other things going on in their lives.

Of course, it's a sign of a more mature society that we don't get so wound up by an All Black defeat, but fear of failure has historically been what made the All Blacks great (along with a production line of farming hardmen and proximity to the Pacific Islands). It might not be the deciding factor tonight, but becoming a better, more well-rounded society might in future make for a more shoddy footy team.

ADVANTAGE: Lions

The Lions won the second test - but weren't that impressive. Photo / Brett Phibbs

3) THE LIONS' PERFORMANCE IN WELLY
Not to sound like a bitter Kiwi but, the visitors weren't that good in Welly. Nor were we, but to go so long without being able to dominate a 14-man side suggests the Lions lack a killer instinct (a point underlined by the number of times they've crossed the line and not scored on tour).

ADVANTAGE: All Blacks

4) THE BABY BLACKS
All Blacks management and man Kiwi sports writers have always made great play of the number of tests certain combinations have played together. Going into the RWC 2015 final, the Nonu-Smith axis had about a gazillion caps between them. In the past 15 years, the All Blacks have done a great job of blooding players gradually, so that when their crunch hour comes, even a relative novice has a dozen test caps. That's partly how come the great Stephen Donald was so nerveless in the 2011 final. (The other key factor in his nervelessness: He's from Waiuku).

Contrast that with tonight's showing, with a new leaguie at No 12 and Baby Barrett at 15. The box-kick obsessed Lions halves will test him out. Yep - we know Laumape and Baby Barrett are both potentially terrific players, but you'd rather have Ben Smith and Nonu out there, right?

ADVANTAGE: Lions

5) THE FRENCH REF
Yep, he's random, but last time I looked both teams had to play under the gaze of the same official. Live with it.

ADVANTAGE: Neutral

The Lions' lineout hasn't been as dominant as expected. Photo / Brett Phibbs

6) GAME OF THROW-INS
The Lions were expected to turn up out here with a lineout that could dominate the series, meaning they'd have the edge in the territory game and ping over some easy threes. They haven't done so. Tonight, expect our locks to go beastmode on theirs at the lineouts, at the restarts and, most of all, on the gainline.

ADVANTAGE: All Blacks

7) BARRETT TO KICK THE GOALS
In Wellington, the All Blacks were a couple of kickable penalties away from a series victory. Expect Beauden Barrett to pass the kicking tee to Baby Barrett tonight.

ADVANTAGE: All Blacks

8) TACTICS
Jerome Kaino ate a bowl of galvanised nails for breakfast this morning. Expect Kaino, Eyeballs Read and Lurch Retallick to play it exactly the way they played it in test one a fortnight ago. For 60 minutes they whacked into the areas nearest the rucks and mauls. Worked pretty well then. What with Laumape on the other side of him, it'll be a busy night in Johnny Sexton's channel.

ADVANTAGE: All Blacks

The All Blacks have a long unbeaten record at Eden Park. Photo / Dean Purcell

9) EDEN PARK
The soulless concrete cavern of Kingsland is a pretty nondescript footy field. And we're lousy singers. Which makes the All Blacks' winning streak there seem remarkable. Maybe the reason the All Blacks win so much at Eden Park is because they tend to play their biggest home games there. The games that matter the most. And when it matters the most, the All Blacks win.

ADVANTAGE: All Blacks

FINAL SCORE - DUNNO. BUT THE ALL BLACKS WILL WIN