Michael Guerin: A punter profits on All Black injury disaster

Dan Carter of the All Blacks shows the pain of a groin injury. Photo / Getty Images

With one ping of the groin Daniel Carter unknowingly set off punting's perfect storm.

And while those of us who like to wear black to rugby tests - and plenty of others - bemoan Carter's absence from this Rugby World Cup, his injury may have made one punter A$32,000 ($40,000) in just a few hours on Sunday.

While gambling was the furthest thing from most people's minds after the Collapse of Carter, huge money was made and lost worldwide because of the injury.

One punter using betting exchange Betfair laid (that is bet against) the All Blacks winning the World Cup for A$100,000 at $1.63 before the injury.

When it was confirmed on Sunday that Carter was gone, the All Blacks' price drifted wildly to as much as $1.95, meaning that punter then could have backed them to win, making a A$32,000 profit if the All Blacks win and losing nothing if they don't.

Or the punter could hedge the bet so it must win A$16,000 either way.

And that is just one of countless examples worldwide of intelligent punters reading how people would react to Carter's injury.

Such is the power of information, or intuition, when gambling experts estimate over $25 million worldwide is invested on who will win the World Cup, a figure that could double in the next three weeks.

"We have traded about A$9 million on who will win the Rugby World Cup and A$5.6 million of that is on the All Blacks," said Betfair spokesman Jake Norton. "So you can imagine the impact Carter's injury had."

While a decent performance against Canada and some of the shock about the injury dissipating has seen the All Blacks' winning price stabilise around $1.75 worldwide, the tidal wave of money bet on Sunday would eclipse any other day in rugby history.

But the fact that most of the serious betting was done after the official announcement was made on Sunday morning confirms the All Black machine did a remarkable, and ethically important, job of keeping the financially vital news quiet.

Of course the cup goes on and this weekend's quarter-finals provide punters a chance to simply back who they think will win, a luxury many of the lesser games didn't provide.

While the All Blacks will beat Argentina, not too many people will bother taking the $1.02 odds. However the TAB is giving $3.25 for the All Blacks to win by between 30 and 45 points. Argentina have trouble finding the tryline and the All Black machine could hit its straps, so this could be a smart bet.

The real match of the weekend for many Kiwis will be South Africa-Australia, which will be like watching two old mates you don't really like that much beating each other up.

The TAB can't split the pair at $1.87 each, with the loss of Frans Steyn for South Africa and the return of Berrick Barnes for Australia probably levelling the contest.

But in what could become a game of aerial ping pong which could come down to goal kicking, South Africa to win by less than 13 points at $2.80 looks the best value.

Weekend winners

* All Blacks paying $3.25 with the TAB to win by 30-45 points.
* South Africa to win by less than 13 paying $2.80