Liam Napier: How this All Blacks squad stacks up against history

All Black Kieran Read during the haka at the second Bledisloe Cup game. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

Compare the All Blacks' past three World Cup squads, and variances in positional numbers and overall experience spring out but so, too, are similarities evident.

The reality is stats only ever reveal so much.

The main anomaly this time around, as the All Blacks seek a third straight crown in Japan, doesn't come from numbers alone.

Rather it's found in the question marks surrounding preferred starters and combinations, particularly in the backline.

Before we get to the nitty-gritty of this Cup campaign, let's first ponder the comparative facts.

The first point to acknowledge when analysing New Zealand's World Cup reign of supremacy, is 2015 was a one-off in terms of squad experience, one unlikely to ever be repeated.

With 1484 total caps, New Zealand's last World Cup squad was easily their most experienced, bolstered by four centurions in the form of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Tony Woodcock and Keven Mealamu.

Ma'a Nonu hovered on 97 tests at the start of the tournament while Conrad Smith, Kieran Read and Owen Franks weren't far behind.

This time around, with Franks left out, Sam Whitelock and Read fly the centurion flag. The 2011 group surprisingly started with not one 100-cap veteran.

Aaron Smith (86 caps), Ben Smith (79), Beauden Barrett (77) and the injured Brodie Retallick (77) sit in this year's next tier of experience, with Sam Cane, Dane Coles and Sonny Bill Williams others in the All Blacks leadership group.

From England's sole success in 2003 to South Africa's second triumph in '07 and the All Blacks thereafter, World Cups are historically captured by an experienced core.

Reason being is this arena brings expectation and scrutiny like no other.

Forget the Six Nations and Rugby Championship, World Cups stand alone.

When scoreboard pressure, dwindling time and knockout atmosphere combine, those who have been there before generally remain more calm, regain control, and lead.

Don't fret, though.

Despite selecting one-test rookie Luke Jacobson and 19 players to attend their first World Cups – two more than 2015 – the experience of this All Blacks squad outweighs that of their 2011 counterparts by 62 caps, though there is one more player with 30 permitted (one less prop) for the New Zealand-hosted tournament.

This year's squad has two fewer than 2011 attending their third World Cups (Whitelock, Read and Williams) but two more (nine in total) in their second dig.

Those such as Cane, Barrett, Coles and Codie Taylor have grown immensely from their first global showpiece but, with an average age of 27, this is the youngest World Cup squad the All Blacks have assembled in the past three cycles.

Similarities are found in the 17 forwards, 14 backs splits Steve Hansen favoured for the 2015 success and this edition in Japan.

Retallick's concerning shoulder injury has forced a change in the lock/loose forward balance, with only three second-rowers selected in 2015.

All Black prop Tony Woodcock scores during the Rugby World Cup Final match between New Zealand and France at Eden Park in 2011. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Eight years ago, the All Blacks approached the 2011 tournament with two first five-eighths in Carter and Colin Slade, with Piri Weepu's versatility offering cover.

We all recall the injury calamities to Carter, Slade, Aaron Cruden and Weepu that transpired over successive Eden Park weekends, before Beaver Donald snuck that penalty between the posts to edge the All Blacks home in the 8-7 final.

Over the next four years, much emphasis was, therefore, placed on grooming first-fives to ensure that situation would not repeat. And it did not, as Carter delivered three world-class performances, two of them on the grand Twickenham stage.

Yet this time, nerves similar to 2011 persist about the lack of depth at No 10 where Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo'unga, the Crusaders general with 12 tests and five starts, are tasked with not only guiding the All Blacks, but staying healthy throughout.

No Cruden, Donald or Lima Sopoaga wait in the wings. Instead, it is uncapped Highlanders playmaker Josh Ioane who may be called upon from outside the squad, should serious injury again strike.

Four years ago the presence of three first-fives – Carter, Barrett, Slade – forced a cull in the back three, leaving room for four outside backs. With five on hand for Japan, this is where selection conversations begin to get murky.

The All Blacks have been forced to adapt and adjust more during this cycle than the previous two, largely because they don't possess the same established depth or settled combinations.

Think, for instance, how long the Jerome Kaino- McCaw-Read loose trio was locked in for 2011 and, once Kaino returned from abroad, 2015 as well. The starting tight-five for both tournaments were settled. Ditto the peerless Nonu-Smith midfield.

All Black captain Richie McCaw holds the Webb Ellis Cup after winning the final match between New Zealand and France in the Rugby World Cup 2011. Photo / Greg Bowker

Israel Dagg surpassed Mils Muliaina to steal the fullback role in 2011, and Nehe Milner-Skudder burst on the scene to claim World Rugby breakthrough player in 2015.

By and large, though, most combinations were set some way out.

For Japan the same can't be said for the back three, midfield or loose forwards. Jack Goodhue is locked at centre, as is halfback Aaron Smith, but the remaining backline personnel and positional set up could be considered contestable.

Ardie Savea-Cane-Read is the preferred loose trio but that, too, is recent and against the bigger packs, the All Blacks will ponder Scott Barrett at blindside.

Elsewhere, Damian McKenzie's mid-season injury forced the All Blacks to arrive late at the Mo'unga-Barrett dual playmaker combination. That they have only started three tests together highlights their work-in-progress status.

Stats complied by northern guru Russ Petty reveal Liam Squire's absence leaves the All Blacks blindside candidates combining for two starts over the past four years, while Nepo Laulala, Ofa Tu'ungafasi and Angus Ta'avo and have collectively started 14 times at tighthead prop in the same timeframe.

The flexibility of this All Blacks squad leaves them with multiple game plans which creates uncertainty for the opposition but it also translates to a potential lack of cohesion – this aspect gleaned from intuitively knowing the innate tendencies of those inside and out.

Such understanding only comes through time together.

The other point to note is at the previous World Cup the All Blacks harnessed ridiculous depth with Beauden Barrett, Williams, Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Victor Vito, Charlie Faumuina, Ben Franks and Mealamu all coming off the bench for the final.

Replicating that same impact four years on may be difficult, having dug much deeper into reserves.

What to take from all this?

Well, the All Blacks remain favourites to clinch a third, successive World Cup title in Japan but prospects feel much more akin to the tense nature of the 2011 final than the dominance the 2015 squad delivered.

This tournament should come with a heart warning.

All Blacks World Cup squads:

2011:
• 30 players
• 1113 caps
• Five players attending third World Cup
• Zero centurions
•Average age: 28

2015:
• 31 players
• 1484 caps
• 17 players attending first World Cups
• Five centurions
•Average age: 28

2019:
• 31 players
• 1195 caps
• Three players attending third World Cup
• 19 attending first World Cup
• Two centurions
•Average age: 27