Changes are coming for the All Blacks in Edinburgh. Just how many is the question.
With seven tests until next year’s World Cup, the All Blacks are clearly keen to take the risks associated with rolling the dice on selection against Scotland.
While the AllBlacks have spoken openly about matching last week’s dominant win in Cardiff and achieving consistency of performance for the first time this season, their quest to build depth is expected to be widely evident this week.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster hinted before departing Cardiff that Jordie Barrett would not retain the second five-eighth role he made his own in two test starts. That’s likely to pave the way for a new-look midfield.
David Havili is favoured to return at No 12 – probably alongside Anton Lienert-Brown in what would mark his first test start since the defeat to Ireland in Dublin last November.
Lienert-Brown spent six months on the sideline following shoulder surgery but after one comeback match for Waikato he was immediately included for the northern tour where he has since twice featured off the bench against Japan and Wales.
A start in the midfield this week would allow the All Blacks to better assess Lienert-Brown’s recovery.
Havili is the victim of unfortunate circumstances after his head injury in Melbourne, where he last started two months ago, opened the door to Barrett producing his standout efforts at No 12.
While Barrett must have the inside running at 12 now, the All Blacks want to continually develop alternate options. Havili, with his kicking variety and subtle skills, presents a different style to Barrett’s direct, confrontational physicality.
Earlier this week, All Blacks forward coach Jason Ryan alluded to the juggling act between building cohesion and adding depth at this stage of their campaign.
“It’s no secret we’ve shown a few different combinations here and there in the last wee while. Selection discussions are always robust and challenging. When they become easy conversations you ask whether everyone is competing,” Ryan said. “There’ll be robust discussions around the hookers, the loose forward trio and it should be like that.”
Further changes are expected wider out in the backline where Blues wing Mark Telea could debut on the right edge. Telea was retained in the squad after a temporary call-up from the All Blacks XV when Will Jordan was ruled out of this tour through injury.
If the All Blacks are going to find out whether Telea is ready for the test arena, now may be the time, with limited specialist-wing options in the squad. Monday morning could also be a special occasion at Murrayfield for Scottish-born Blues halfback Finlay Christie, with suspicions he may be promoted to start against his nation of birth.
Christie was born in the same hospital as Scotland fullback Stuart Hogg and prop Rory Sutherland. He grew up in Peebles, around 37km from Edinburgh, but has lived in New Zealand for the best part of two decades after his family moved to Pukekohe when he was seven.
After a disappointing performance in his last start in Tokyo, behind an underwhelming effort from the All Blacks forward pack, Christie will be keen to impress.
Rotation is expected to continue up front where Samisoni Taukei’aho’s destructive presence is likely to be reinstalled as the starting hooker after coming off the bench behind Codie Taylor’s two-try effort in Cardiff last week.
“The hookers complement each other really well. Codie is experienced and Soni was outstanding coming off the bench,” Ryan said. “Asafo [Aumua] has come in and he gets to train well and grow his habits and we’ll have a good look at him. There’s no guarantees that anyone is going to start or finish, they’re all competing at trainings.”
After falling behind Shannon Frizell in the blindside pecking order this season – coming off the bench in four of his last five tests - Blues loose forward Akira Ioane may be handed the start too; with Scott Barrett a strong consideration at six and Ethan Blackadder set to return from injury next season, Ioane realises he must seize these chances.
“It’s not easy being in here, everyone is at the top of the game, the best of the best. With the opportunities we do get, we’ve got to make the most of it because we might not be there next week,” Ioane said. “If I do get the chance, I’ll try take it with both hands and enjoy myself – that’s when I’m at my best.”
The argument for stability would involve Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett retained at first five-eighth and fullback, respectively, but switching Jordie Barrett to the backfield will be considered.
Elsewhere, the All Blacks will ponder whether to include Roger Tuivasa-Sheck on the bench after recalling him from the All Blacks XV last week, and the potential of handing Blues playmaker Stephen Perofeta another chance following his maiden start at fullback against Japan.