This transtasman stoush will be hard fought - and won - in the technical details, writes John Drake
KEY POINTS:
The result of tomorrow's test is very hard to predict but I suspect the Wallabies may enter the match slightly ahead of the All Blacks. Robbie Deans' Super 14 background gives him a better understanding of the ELVs than Graham Henry. He also has an intimate knowledge of what were once his Crusaders - Greg Somerville, Brad Thorn, Ali Williams, Andy Ellis and Dan Carter - as well as a pretty good idea of the All Blacks mentality.
The home advantage is huge for the Wallabies - in recent times they have struggled to win away but have made Australia their fortress under previous coaches Eddie Jones and John Connolly.
Against this the All Blacks should still be hurting from the Dunedin loss. The return of Somerville, Thorn and an injury free Williams will definitely remedy the inexperience the pack showed against South Africa.
Key areas will again be the set piece and breakdowns.
I was alarmed to watch the Wallabies scrum technique last week against South Africa. The front row seemed to purposely stay high - even after the referee commanded them to "crouch". On "engage", the Wallaby front row aimed down on the South Africans making it difficult for the Boks to get grips on their opponents and keep the scrum from collapsing.
The penalty count at the scrums favoured Australia and it is fair to say they outsmarted the Boks in this area. There were a number of collapsed scrums - in fact statistics indicate games featuring the Wallabies have 35 per cent more collapsed scrums than other Tri-Nations matches. Is this a coincidence or a plan?
In a test last year George Gregan never actually fed the Wallabies scrum in an entire 40 minutes of rugby with only penalties being given for collapsing and binding infringements - definitelya victory for the cunning but brittle Australian scrum.
The latest Wallabies entry technique is similar to that used by the Crusaders a few seasons ago.
Lineouts against Australia are a bit different with the All Blacks struggling in recent times. Williams, Thorn, Jerome Kaino and Rodney So'oialo give the All Blacks more targets than before although Richie McCaw will be missed.
The best bet for the All Blacks will be to keep it simple and, early on, throw short to the front - it's not such good possession to attack with but the odds are better of winning your own ball.
I am surprised Deans hasn't rushed Vickerman back as he has been a real nuisance for the All Blacks. I expect he will be introduced if Holwell and Sharpe don't get quick dominance. Moore's throwing can be erratic so the Wallabies might not be quite as dominant as in recent times.
Some say the trends of the modern game have resulted in the openside flanker's ability to win turnovers at the breakdown becoming less important. Sure you need others to support and the techniques have improved from prop to winger at the breakdown but George Smith will kill the All Blacks unless he is controlled.
Smith has the ability to get turnovers and more importantly slow down opposite possession.
McCaw will definitely be missed, Braid is pretty good and deserves his start as the country's second-best specialist number seven but he will need plenty of support.
Last week the Wallabies dominated the breakdown by getting more numbers than the Boks, being more aggressive and defending the inside channels.
Aggression and numbers at the breakdown were lacking from the All Blacks in Dunedin. The return of Thorn in particular should improve matters.
I suspect victory at the breakdown could be more important than the set pieces against the Wallabies. The old saying that if you scrum well you ruck well may not quite apply.
Certainly last week the Wallabies were keen on getting the ball two or three passes wide of the existing breakdown, thus stretching the defence and getting over the advantage line. In contrast the All Blacks had more than 20 pick-and-goes in Dunedin and mostly failed to breach the Boks defensive line, let alone the gain line.
The halfback battle will be decided by which set of forwards is dominant. Neither Andy Ellis nor Luke Burgess have been in great recent form, with both throwing mud pies rather than passing a rugby ball.
Carter versus Matt Giteau is worth the Sky subscription alone - both are clever, brave and dependable in the big matches.
But this could be Ma'a Nonu's test - Berrick Barnes is steady and tough but maybe Nonu is overdue for a special match. Of course, Stirling Mortlock will be missed, he's one player who has the wood on the All Blacks and is an inspirational leader - probably the best 13 in the world. Nonetheless, Brendan Kahui will need all his wits to handle the clever Aussie running angles.
Mils Muliana's experience and organisation will be needed to assist the inexperienced Anthony Tuituvaki and the flaky Sitiveni Sivivatu.
Deans will surely instruct Giteau and co to kick behind and in front of the All Blacks wingers using Lote Tuquiri and co to try and trap the All Blacks behind the advantage line.
In fact, I expect the Wallabies to kick a lot in an effort to strangle the All Blacks attempts to play with width in the backs.
In the end it will be the details that give one team the edge. Mental toughness under pressure will be vital - something the Aussies have in spades in all sports.
Either way it will be close.
