Wynne Gray: Reputations and futures on trial at Cake Tin

Perhaps we should call tonight's test an All Black trial.

There is also the none-too trivial issue of the Tri-Nations wooden-spoon to be awarded and if the All Blacks stack that in their trophy cabinet, you can be sure it won't be featured in the successes column in the next annual report.

The NZRU spin doctors will be in overdrive and overtime trying to find the positives if the men in black don't find victory at the Cake Tin tonight.

It may be a contest between the cellar-dwellers but there is a great deal hanging on the outcome, for the team, the staff and the national administrators.

We are less than two years away from the World Cup kickoff. The All Black coaching group are already working on strategies for that tournament and how they can get the team to peak for October 2011.

Maybe they should start by picking the best from a group of youngsters like Israel Dagg, Lelia Masaga, Robbie Fruean, Aaron Cruden, Robbie Robinson, Colin Bourke, Victor Vito and Luke Braid for the end of year odyssey to Japan and Europe.

They may not get to play much but in the modern vernacular, the coaches will be able to assess those players' qualities and integrate them into the All Black culture to check whether they have the qualities to survive.

Others like Luke McAlister, Conrad Smith and Tamati Ellison should return to a touring party after their injuries and they can be blended into the mix.

If the All Blacks drop to defeat tonight though they should take some of their tutors with them.

They cannot be allowed to act like the Blues this season, who after a poor Super 14, have shed long-term baggage man Spy Kelly and video analyst Daniel Cron. That does not compute.

The All Black coaching group employed a sharp strategy for re-election, all in or none in. The board swallowed that concept but should be more selective now when they assess this season.

Henry has experience, the drive and clues about his defensive demands to continue but Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen are battling with their portfolios.

They have not squeezed enough from their attack and lineout duties this season.

Defeat in half the tests this year and no apparent rise in quality is a disconcerting trend.

That concern will escalate if there is another stumble tonight in Wellington.

Even those at the national headquarters who have worn ear-muffs to guard against hearing prevailing opinions, may have to concede there should be some change.

No alternatives, you say.

Dave Rennie took the under 20s to glory and has succeeded with an under-strength Manawatu, Todd Blackadder seems to hit the right notes at the Crusaders while Ian Foster and Colin Cooper are the NZ Junior staff.