Wynne Gray: Last chance to make case for selection

Nick Mallett has been praying for rain.

Some of the meteorologists, soothsayers and crystal ball gazers who inhabit the Christchurch area reckon the Italian rugby coach will get his wish.

There are some dodgy forecasts for the evening kickoff which Mallett believes will inhibit the All Blacks and reduce the margin of defeat for his team.

This is the final match for the Azurri at the end of a long season.

They travelled across the Tasman, after twin defeats to the Wallabies, looking for some sort of damage limitation in their final game.

Italy will not beat the All Blacks but they may inflict some individual pain.

They have some serious forward power, they have found a five eighths in former NRL player Craig Gower who might hold up and a captain in Sergio Parisse.

But they will get beaten. They lost every Six Nations game this year and they are ranked 12th in the world.

The Wallabies did not play especially smart football but managed to stack on over 30 points in each of their victories this month.

Even this modest All Black side will not be the first men in black to fall to the Italians since the sides commenced rugby warfare back in the 1987 World Cup.

They have met nine times in all, five of them curiously being in World Cups, with the All Blacks' greatest margin coming in 1999 at Huddersfield when they lolloped out to a 101-3 victory. In most matches the result was never in doubt. Except in 1991.

The All Blacks used most of their stars that day at Leicester, but got a massive fright before they squeaked home 31-21. It was by far the closest game in the teams' test history and one which probably still makes the Whettons, Grant Fox, John Kirwan, Zinzan Brooke, Ian Jones, Steve McDowell, Richard Loe and Sean Fitzpatrick, a little uneasy when they recall the match.

This will be only the third time the sides have played in New Zealand after the 1987 World Cup opener and the 2002 match in Hamilton when the All Blacks triumphed 64-10.

The concern for the All Blacks will be the damage bill after the match. Not one caused by high jinks in any restaurant or letting off steam before the start of the Tri-Nations series but the body count during the game.

Just to illustrate the point, try 2003, the World Cup opener in Melbourne. The All Blacks waltzed away with a 70-7 victory but lost centre Tana Umaga for the rest of the tournament after a collision with teammate Carlos Spencer. And in 1995 in a tour game at Catania before the test at Bologna, spearhead five eighths Andrew Mehrtens limped out of the tour.

Those sorts of dramas will be the All Blacks greatest fear when they stride out on to a Christchurch arena which is being rebuilt to host World Cup matches in 2011.

The All Blacks will not need more damage as they look to rebuild their side for the upcoming Tri-Nations series. The selectors will be holding their collective breath that nothing untoward occurs to senior lock Ali Williams as he re-enters the international arena and that the rest of their flock escapes the match intact.

But this test will also be Last Chance Saloon for several in the squad.

Original selections Richard Kahui and Rudi Wulf missed the June series because of injury while Andrew Hore and Adam Thomson have had injury-restricted game time but there are still 30 players in the squad.

That number will have to be culled before the start of the Tri-Nations with the competition rules allowing only 26 players to travel to South Africa and 24 to Australia.

With captain Richie McCaw due to return for the opening Bledisloe Cup on July 18 in Auckland, wing Sitiveni Sivivatu, Rodney So'oialo and Wulf apparently close to recovery and Anthony Boric getting closer, there will be some tough selection choices to be made.

The side is carrying five props at the moment, four locks, three opensiders and three hookers so the cull will start there.

Players such as Owen Franks, Aled de Malmanche, Bryn Evans, George Whitelock and Liam Messam will need fortune and some standout performances to make the cut while the heat will be coming on the outside backs and especially Joe Rokocoko and Isaia Toeava to retain their places.

"A lot of people are on trial so there is probably an uncomfortable feeling for a lot of players," assistant coach Wayne Smith said. "But that is good and what has made All Black teams strong and vibrant in the past."

Selection for the Tri-Nations squad was easier in some areas, Smith said, because there were breaks in the programme and the panel had no qualms about players being able to handle all three away matches. In other ways it was more complex as the selectors had to back certain players.

Smith said the selectors had to judge the readiness of players returning from injury against those who had been inside the squad from the start of the June internationals.

But with the attention on Italy first, Smith said he noted the consistent strong work of the Italian pack and the difference Gower brought as a playmaker. He carried the ball and had encouraged a few smart moves from his backline while the pack would physically confront the All Blacks.

Italian rugby is characterised by the toughness of their pack and in Mallett, a man who led the Springboks to a world record 17 straight wins during his 1997-2000 stint, they have a coach who was well versed in the harsh demands of international rugby.