KEY POINTS:
Breaking news: The All Blacks have claimed the 2024 cup of nations thanks to a thrilling come-from-behind victory over Romania in Christchurch. The result caps a remarkable turnaround for Graham Henry's side, whose title chances looked all but gone after earlier losses to Japan and the USA in rugby's second-tier competition. The NZRU is trumpeting the result as a significant step forward for a country that won its last major international trophy in 1987.
A far-fetched scenario? Not according to NZRU CEO Steve Tew.
"If the drain on our players continues at the current level - not just the superstars but right throughout the game - then we are going to be confined to Tier-2 status very shortly," Tew said. "[The IRB] will be giving us money to develop our own academies, as they are to Tier-2 countries around the world."
Tew's comments were partly a reaction to the $1.9m French carrot believed to be dangling in front of star All Blacks playmaker Daniel Carter as he ponders his options for next year. It's an amount in a different orbit from what the NZRU could hope to muster for one man.
"We certainly haven't put the white flag up, we are committed to retaining as much of our talent as we can," Tew said. "[But] if the numbers being bandied about are true then we've got a challenge on our hands."
Sure have.
An absence of market controls means the only way the NZRU can compete is to raise more money. With the Super 14 and national championship in commercial decline, the union's most dependable cash cow is the All Blacks.
But Tew and his board already stand accused of having milked the cow to death, of having saturated rugby fans with so many matches some have drowned, while others have simply changed the channel. When, they are asked, will they finally understand that less can be more?
The problem with that theory, points out Tew, is that less can also be less, particularly in the short term. It could mean au revoir Dan, salut Romania.
"Yes we are treading a very fine line between adding more games - both in terms of fan interest and workload on our players - versus the fact that when we put the All Blacks out there we make money," he said. "That money then comes back and helps us retain our players and helps us develop the game at a community level.
"It is a trade-off and we make no apologies for the fact that we are pushing that boundary in 2008."
Tew and co have considerably more to worry about than just losing Carter. Last year's $1.7m NZRU operating loss could have been three times that had a foreign currency gamble not paid off.
It's not just the national body that is feeling the pinch. Some provincial unions are on the brink of financial collapse thanks mainly to an over-inflated local player market, created in part by the increase to a 14-team national championship. If rugby's finances retrench much further, initiatives to bolster the game at grass roots level could be threatened.
"If we don't keep the base of the game strong and vibrant and safe and attractive for kids to play, for mums and dads to bring their kids to, then we are going to struggle long-term to have a winning All Blacks side," Tew said.
The battle against PlayStation and Nintendo for the hearts and limbs of the Facebook generation is another reason the NZRU needs cash.
Currently it pumps about $6m a year into community rugby, but last year player numbers fell across the board.
When rugby ushered in professionalism it seemed the streets would be paved with gold. As recently as 2006 the NZRU posted a profit of more than $23m. The year before it was $20m. But two years of losses suggest the money is drying up.
"The challenges financially for rugby union in New Zealand are up front and in headlights," Tew said.
Those IRB Tier-2 hand-outs might just come in handy.
