KEY POINTS:
With the naming of the All Blacks' touring squad just eight days away, Steve Deane runs the rule over the domestic season's standout performers and their chances of making Graham Henry's squad:
PROPS (LIKELY TO BE FIVE IN THE SQUAD)
Incumbents: John Afoa, Neemia Tialata, Tony Woodcock, (Greg Somerville), John Schwalger
Contenders: Jamie Mackintosh, Wyatt Crockett
Bolter: Faka'anaua (Sona) Taumalolo
Situation: With five props likely to go on the tour, Greg Somerville's decision to head overseas means two spots are up for grabs. One of them is almost certain to go to Southland captain Jamie Mackintosh, who looms as the long-term replacement for incumbent loosehead Tony Woodcock. Having played against Ireland earlier this year, Schwalger looks to have the inside running as the additional tighthead. If the selectors opt for a bolter, 26-year-old Tongan Faka'anaua (Sona) Taumalolo has been in destructive form for Hawkes Bay this season.
HOOKERS (THREE)
Incumbents: Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu
Contenders: Hikawira Elliot, Corey Flynn
Bolter: Dane Coles
Situation: With three to tour it's likely the status quo will be maintained, with Hore and Mealamu getting the bulk of the playing time. That assumes Mealamu's decline this season doesn't tempt the selectors to widen the talent pool and take two fresh faces. But, with the country's resources stretched as it is, and Mealamu being such a stable presence in the squad, that is unlikely. Hawkes Bay's Hikawira Elliott was on call earlier in the season and may have done enough in a storming national championship season to get the third spot. Wellington's Dane Coles has been the other standout hooker in the competition but he is likely a Super Rugby season or two away from real consideration, meaning Canterbury's Corey Flynn is the most likely challenger to Elliot.
LOCKS (FIVE)
Incumbents: Ali Williams, Brad Thorn, Anthony Boric, (Kevin O'Neil)
Contenders: Jeremy Thrush, Tom Donnelly, Ross Filipo, Jason Eaton
Bolter: Michael Paterson
Situation: Williams, Thorn and Boric are all certainties and O'Neil was blooded earlier this season. O'Neil is injured, opening up two touring spots. Wellington's Jeremy Thrush has been the standout lock of the national championship for two seasons in a row and it's hard to see him missing out, while Ross Filipo has also made a strong case for a recall.
LOOSE FORWARDS (SEVEN)
Incumbents: Richie McCaw, Rodney So'oialo, Jerome Kaino, Sione Lauaki, Adam Thomson
Contenders: Kieran Read, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam
Bolter: Victor Vito
Situation: Four of the five incumbents are certainties. The other, Sione Lauaki, has long been a favourite of this selection panel so it would be a surprise if he too didn't make the cut despite a poor international season. That would leave two spots, one of which is sure to go to impressive Canterbury blindside/No 8 Kieran Read. If the other goes to an openside then Tanerau Latimer appears the most likely candidate. But, if the tour is seen as a good chance to switch Thomson to the openside, it could open the door for the likes of Liam Messam. Victor Vito's rapidly rising star rather levelled off with a poor game in the Ranfurly Shield challenge against Auckland and he is yet to play Super Rugby.
HALFBACKS (THREE)
Incumbents: Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, (Brendon Leonard)
Contenders: Andrew Ellis
Bolter: Alby Matthewson
Situation: Cowan appears to have staked a claim for the number one spot but below him the situation is unclear. Brendon Leonard's injury opened the door for Piri Weepu's impressive comeback while Andrew Ellis had been average at best before injuries took him out of the picture. Ellis, who went to the World Cup instead of Weepu, is another darling of the panel so it's hard to see his stock having fallen enough for him to miss out. So, unless Weepu is axed again, it's hard to see any new faces making the trip.
FULLBACKS (TWO)
Incumbents: Mils Muliaina, (Leon MacDonald), Isaia Toeava
Contenders: Cory Jane, Paul Williams
Bolter: Israel Dagg
Situation: MacDonald's recurring concussion-related problem means he probably won't tour. Isaia Toeava's best position is fullback and he could be given the chance to show that on this tour. But, with the midfield depth looking incredibly shallow, Toeava will likely be needed to plug holes at 12 and 13. That could see Wellington's Cory Jane called up. For that to happen, Jane will have had to overcome the impression that he is a very good provincial and Super Rugby player but perhaps not quite up to international level. Auckland-bound Paul Williams has had a quiet national championship but was involved in the pre-season training camp.
CENTRES (TWO) Incumbents: Conrad Smith, Richard Kahui
Contenders: Isaia Toeava, Casey Laulala
Bolter: None
Situation: Midfield is the real black hole in the nation's rugby stocks at the moment and the situation is only exacerbated by the selection of Richard Kahui - the country's most promising centre - at wing in the current starting line-up. The tour seems a perfect chance for Kahui to revert to his specialist position and the same could be said of Anthony Tuitavake, who has been used predominantly on the wing by both the Blues and the All Blacks. Utility Isaia Toeava is another option. Outside of the current squad, only Canterbury's Casey Laulala - who played the last of his two tests in 2006 - is a real alternative.
SECOND FIVE-EIGHTHS (TWO) Incumbents: Ma'a Nonu
Contenders: Stephen Brett, Isaia Toeava
Bolter: Benson Stanley
Situation: Nonu made the 12 shirt his own this season, starting all 10 tests and playing the full 80 minutes in eight of them. Conrad Smith spelled him in one match and Daniel Carter did the same in the Tri-Nations decider when Stephen Donald came on at first five-eighths. The lack of genuine alternatives is startling. Carter spending more time at 12 is not beyond the realms of possibility but his looming sabbatical complicates that - and likewise the possibility of Donald shifting out a place. With top prospect Benson Stanley having gone backwards in a struggling Auckland backline this season, the next best alternative appears to be Canterbury pivot Stephen Brett, whose persistent injury has kept him sidelined.
FIRST FIVE-EIGHTHS (TWO)
Incumbents: Dan Carter, Stephen Donald
Contenders: Stephen Brett
Bolter: None
Situation: Another position with little apparent depth. Heavyweights Auckland, Wellington and Otago can't muster a genuine contender between them, while Canterbury's Stephen Brett has missed most of the season with a persistent leg injury. Outside of the major centres, there's also little reason for much cheer. The emergence of Canterbury back-up Colin Slade is perhaps the only bright spot.
WINGS (FOUR)
Incumbents: Sitiveni Sivivatu, Anthony Tuitavake, Rudi Wulf
Contenders: Joe Rokocoko, Hosea Gear, Lelia Masaga
Bolter: Zac Guildford
Situation: With Hosea Gear's case for inclusion having become overwhelming and Joe Rokocoko ready to return, the wing picture has become congested all of a sudden. If Rokocoko and Gear both make the cut, it could spell bad news for Rudi Wulf, with Anthony Tuitavake's ability to cover midfield making him more likely to survive any cull. Of the other contenders, Lelia Masaga had a standout Super 14 but has been lost in the obscurity of another poor Counties Manukau season, while Zac Guildford has continued his fine Hurricanes form but is still probably a year or two away.
Provincial heroes with an eye on the tour:
Kieran Read - Canterbury
Perhaps the most unlucky player not to be involved in the All Blacks' domestic season. After a standout Super 14 with the Crusaders, Read was surprisingly overlooked for the back-up looseforward role in favour of Adam Thomson, but now his time has most certainly come.
A blindside flanker for the Crusaders, Read has looked equally adept at No 8 for Canterbury playing in the domestic competition after switching to cover in that position for the injured Mose Tuiali'i. Strong, quick and tall enough at 1.93m, the 105kg Read has the classic looseforward's build. A product of Papakura's Rosehill College, Read has been an ever-present fixture of the Crusaders' line-up since making his debut against the Blues in round one last year, notching 29 straight Super Rugby appearances for the successful southern franchise. A standout member of the Junior All Blacks last year, Read also represented New Zealand in cricket at age grade level before making the decision to go with rugby full-time.
Hosea Gear - Wellington
With 12 tries in 10 games this season, the 24-year-old winger's form in the Air New Zealand Cup has been nothing short of startling. Always a player with prodigious physical gifts, the 1.89m, 103kg Gisborne native hasn't always delivered on his potential. Quite the opposite, really. Before this season, his previous 26 games for Wellington had yielded just six tries. But suspicions that Gear's career may have turned the corner, which surfaced during a strong Super 14 campaign, were confirmed when he blasted into this season's national championship with hat-tricks against Counties Manukau and Bay of Plenty. Gear has certainly benefited from playing in a good side but there has been an element of individual brilliance in many of his scores.
Word around the traps is that Gear - who now has five Super 14 campaigns under his belt - hasn't always been the fittest of players. But that has changed in the last 12 months and it now seems certain his efforts are about to be rewarded with an All Blacks call-up.
Jamie Mackintosh - Southland
Nicknamed Whopper for obvious reasons, the 1.92m, 129kg Southlander has long been tipped for the big time. Now 23, the man tipped as the long-term successor to loosehead supremo Tony Woodcock has represented New Zealand at every level from U16 upwards. Others have travelled that path without delivering at the top level; Mackintosh, however, looks the real deal.
Earlier this year, he stepped up from reserves duties at the Highlanders, enabling the side to field a competitive scrum despite the loss of an entire front row including Carl Hayman and Anton Oliver. He was then elevated to the Southland captaincy, leading his team to a first domestic semifinal. Last year, Mackintosh spoke about his discomfort at being persistently referred to as an All Black-in-waiting: "People say, 'You're going to be an All Black', but they probably don't know how much I've got to do to get from here to there," he said.
That work, it seems, has been done. It will be a shock if the next big thing doesn't take the big step up on this tour.
Jeremy Thrush - Wellington
The standout lock in the national domestic championship last season, the 23-year-old Hutt Valley High School product has backed up that showing with another strong campaign in Wellington colours this year.
On the small side for a lock at 1.98m, Thrush makes up for any shortcomings in the height department through sheer athleticism about the park. A genuine try-scoring threat with eight in 35 matches, the IRB's world U19 player of the year in 2004 also possesses surprisingly good distribution skills and a support play game more akin to a loose forward. With Jason Eaton having struggled to recapture his form following a knee reconstruction, Thrush has assumed the mantle of the Hurricanes' senior lock. With Waikato's Kevin O'Neil injured, there are two touring spots up for grabs. Thrush must be a leading candidate for one of them. Wellington teammate Ross Filipo, Otago captain Tom Donnelly and young Canterbury prospect Michael Paterson and Eaton are the other contenders.
Hikawira Elliot - Hawke's Bay
If Graham Henry isn't bluffing and the All Blacks' squad is already picked, Elliot's storming display for Hawke's Bay against Waikato in last Sunday's quarter-final might have counted for nothing. Fortunately for the Hastings native, he has been in similarly fine fettle for the entire national championship.
Another who has upped his effort in recent times, the 22-year-old managed to shed 18kg in the build-up to the 2007 national championship, trimming down to his current fighting weight of 116kg.
His power and mobility saw him drafted into the Hurricanes squad as back-up hooker to Andrew Hore and, having been called into the squad to provide cover earlier in the season, he is a good chance of filling that role on this All Blacks tour. Something of a rarity for New Zealand hookers, the former New Zealand Secondary Schools captain's lineout throwing is also a strength, with the Magpies' having conceded just two not-straight throws all season.
Cory Jane - Wellington
One of the most-consistent performers on the domestic scene in recent seasons, the Wellington No 15 has earned the right to be considered a contender in any serious discussion about prospects for the All Blacks squad on the end-of-season tour.
Always a steady presence at the back for Wellington and the Hurricanes, the evasive fullback his become a match-winner with a knack of making breaks and scoring tries at crucial times in tight matches. The 25-year-old has already racked up 42 appearances for Wellington in the domestic competition and has enjoyed a taste of international success with the sevens team, picking up a Commonwealth Games gold in 2006. Leon MacDonald's injury-enforced absence appears to have opened up an opportunity in the No 15 jersey. Jane will be hopeful, but the selectors preferred Paul Williams in their pre-season training camp and Graham Henry's preferred odd-job man, Isaia Toeava, could also come into calculations as a back-up fullback.
