KEY POINTS:
My bet is that the All Black selectors will go with what they have when replacing Richie McCaw against South Africa.
But it might be a different story against Robbie Deans' Wallabies - that is where they may play a specialist No 7. We'll know today what the selectors are doing but I think they should stay within the squad with a loose forward trio of Rodney So'oialo, Adam Thomson and Jerome Kaino on Saturday.
I think, however, that they might bring a player like Tanerau Latimer into the squad and maybe give him game time against the Boks before starting him against the Wallabies, who have dangerous ball fetchers in George Smith and Phil Waugh.
The obvious selection for the South African match is Chris Masoe. There is no doubt Masoe has a combative attitude but he has played 6, 7 and 8 and never really fired in any of the three positions. Before he was left out of the squad for the first three internationals, he was there because he covered all three. But the new rules change things at the breakdown and the selectors wanted to try players better in that area.
I think the selectors will play So'oialo at No 8. He will likely be captain and it is asking too much to make him switch positions and be skipper in the same test. That leaves Thomson and Kaino on the side.
I know a lot of people will frown at that but we don't really have a specialist No 7 who can slot straight in for Richie. Well, we do - his name is Marty Holah but he's in Europe, probably saying: "Bugger".
It's strange - we are normally so rich in ball-fetching No 7s but we have so few now, even accepting that Daniel Braid is injured.
However, if the selectors are sincere about trying new style loose forwards, they have to face up to the Boks and Kaino and Thomson seem most likely. Both have pace and power but can't be expected to replace McCaw. No-one can; he's such an instinctive player.
Masoe will give them grit and fire but we know he is not what they are looking for right now so calling him back will be an admission they can't find what they want yet.
The Boks also have Schalk Burger - like McCaw, instinctive and a powerful force at the breakdown - but he is still returning from his knee injury and may not be at peak.
It's a big call but that's why the All Black selectors get the big bucks. Their only alternative is So'oialo at 7 but that's out of the question, even though he complements McCaw so well at the breakdown. I like So'oialo as a player; he really gets stuck in at the rucks and mauls, always comes back for more and has a big engine. So he'll be there doing the McCaw-style work and he needs to be backed up against the Boks by big, fast men - like Kaino and Thomson.
All this also goes to show that Richie McCaw hasn't been as rotated as everyone else, has he? Good job, I say. You play your best player and when he is so clearly head and shoulders above everyone else, no wonder replacing him is tough.
