Richard Loe: Squad selection forecasts likely strategies

When you look at the Springbok squad for the two tests in New Zealand, it's not hard to forecast the type of game they will play.

The squad's unusual - five props, when four is considered a luxury; five locks; only two specialist flankers (Schalk Burger and Francois Louw); one specialist halfback (Ricky Januarie); one specialist centre (Jaque Fourie); and two specialist wings (Bryan Habana and Francois Hougaard).

There are players who can cover those seemingly thin areas, of course. But it's still an unusual structure for a squad and it seems the Boks will not try to play an expansive game.

My bet is they'll play to all those big men and look to dominate in the set pieces, retaining the ball, kicking and playing territory and trying to smother the All Blacks with that suffocating defence; looking to hit them on the counter.

They won't try to slow the game down exactly but I think they'll park the ability they have shown in recent times to be expansive and penetrating when they have the ball - and will kick it out and use Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha to dominate the lineouts.

So it will be a big test for the All Black tight five and a big step up from Wales and Ireland. On the plus side, I think the All Black lineout has done well lately. The accuracy and effectiveness has been good. I think Keven Mealamu and the jumpers have earned a tick; and so has coach Steve Hansen ahead of their toughest test yet.

If they can get parity in the lineouts and the scrums, then the All Blacks are a big chance, based on what they have shown this season - good continuity, good skills, adequate ball retention (needs improving) and good penetration.

If they can get enough ball, the chances are they will get those big Bok forwards moving around - and that will likely mean the South Africans will have to use more big men off the bench to keep things going.

The scrum will be the most interesting set piece, along with the lineout. Recent Springbok sides haven't dominated there as they traditionally did. They have huge, big men - but they are not necessarily good at technique and dominance.

There may be, too, a bit of a sniff for the All Blacks at halfback. Ricky Januarie is not even first pick for the Stormers these days and the Boks lost a tactical kicker who takes some of the burden off first five Morne Steyn when their halfback Fourie du Preez was injured. Steyn often doesn't play so well when du Preez is not there.

Januarie apparently played well against Wales this month and we all remember his match-winning heroics against the All Blacks in 2008 - but it will be interesting to see what he is like under pressure now. His replacements are Ruan Pienaar and Hougaard, both halfbacks originally but who have since been played elsewhere.

It's a similar story at flanker. Burger and Louw are it - although the Boks could substitute lock-flanker Danie Roussouw or the free-running Ryan Kankowski if injuries hit. Somehow, I fancy the All Black loose forward balance a little better - Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Kieran Read, Victor Vito and even Liam Messam.

Fascinating stuff. Can't wait.